Munich Personal RePEc Archive

¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta

Idrovo Aguirre, Byron (2008): ¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta. Published in: Documetos de Trabajo - Cámara Chilena de la Construcción No. 48 (15. September 2008)

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months.

We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).

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