Feng, Dai and Yuan-Zheng, Zhong (2006): The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution.
Download (440Kb) | Preview
The paper presents the basic theory and conceptual model for advance-retreat course and provides the analytic model the stochastic advance-retreat course and the solving method of it, discusses the relations between the endogenous resistance and subject interests increase with the periodic vibration in an advance-retreat course, gets some results, like heightening appropriately the risk-free interest rate will be favorable to subject interests’ increasing in stable, interests increasing in high-speed will result in the fast increase of resistance, the subject progress in a appropriate pace may bring the conclusion such as lasting interests increase and return with higher-level interests, etc. Finally, the empirical researches empirical, on data of USA GDP (chained) price index, has been made to the stochastic advance-retreat model, and the results show that the stochastic advance-retreat model can describe USA economic development process in recent 65 years.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution|
|Keywords:||Economic process; advance-retreat course; the basic theory; analytic model|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
|Depositing User:||feng dai|
|Date Deposited:||05. Oct 2006|
|Last Modified:||20. Feb 2013 20:05|
Barro R J, Sala-i-Martin X. 1995. Economic Growth. McGraw Hill: New York. Brams S J. 2004. Game Theory and Politics. Courier Dover Publications. Collier P, Dollar D. 2004. Development Effectiveness: What Have We Learnt?. Economic Journal 114: 244-271. Colman A M, Hines T. 1998. Game Theory and Its Applications: In the Social and Biological Sciences. Routledge (UK). Croix D L, Michel P. 2002. A Theory of Economic Growth: Dynamics and Policy in Overlapping Generations. Cambridge University Press. Dai F, Gi G P. 2001. A New Kind of Pricing Model for Commodity and Estimating Indexes System for Price Security. Chinese Journal of Management Science 9(1): 62-69. Dai F, Xu W X, Liu H, Xu H. 2003. A New Kind of Method of Optimal Pricing for Commodity. Chinese Journal of Management Science 11(1): 33-37. Dai F, Qin Z F. 2005. DF Structure Models for Options Pricing. ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics 4(6):61-77. Fudenberg D, Tirole J. 1991. Game Theory. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Gandolfo G. 2003. Economic Dynamics. Springer. Graziella B. 2001. The Politics of Co-optation. Journal of Comparative Economics 29: 51-72. Graziella B. 2004. The Evolution of Modern Education Systems: Technical vs. General Education, Distributional Conflict and Growth. Journal of Development Economics 73: 559-582. Guillaumont P, Chauvet L. 2001. Aid and Performance: A Reassessment. Journal of Development Studies 37: 66-87. Johnson N L, Kotz S, Balakrishnan N. 1994. Continuous Univariate Distributions, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons. King R, Plosser C, Rebelo S. 1988. Growth and Business Cycles: I &II. Journal of Monetary Economics 21:195-232, 309-341. Kydland F, Prescott E. 1982. Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica 50: 1345-70. Long J, Plosser C. 1983. Real Business Cycles. Journal of Political Economy 91: 39-69. Lucas R E. 1981. Understanding business cycles, Studies in Business Cycle Theory. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. 215-239. Lucas R E. 1987. Models of Business Cycles, Basil Blackwell, New York. Osborne M J. 2003. An Introduction to Game Theory. Oxford University Press (US). Plosser C. 1989. Understanding Real Business Cycles. Journal of Economic Perspectives 3: 51-77. Romer P M. 1986. Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth. Journal of Political Economy 94: 1002-1037. Romer P M. 1990. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy 98: 71-102. Simon H A. 1954. Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review 63: 120-138.