Graefe, Andreas and Armstrong, J. Scott (2012): Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. Forthcoming in: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
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When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent’s relative issue ratings to the actual two-party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out-of-sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and other established quantitative models. This model has implications for political decision-makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues|
|Keywords:||index method, unit weighting, experience table, presidential election, accuracy|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C20 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling
H - Public Economics > H8 - Miscellaneous Issues > H80 - General
|Depositing User:||Andreas Graefe|
|Date Deposited:||24. Mar 2012 23:48|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 09:44|
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Available Versions of this Item
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 05. Aug 2008 06:08)
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)
- Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. (deposited 24. Mar 2012 23:48) [Currently Displayed]
- Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)