Basuchoudhary, Atin and Allen, Sam and Siemers, Troy (2008): Civilization and the evolution of short sighted agents.
Download (219kB) | Preview
We model an assurance game played within a population with two types of individuals -- short-sighted and foresighted. Foresighted people have a lower discount rate than short sighted people. These phenotypes interact with each other. We define the persistent interaction of foresighted people with other foresighted people as a critical element of civilization while the interaction of short sighted people with other short sighted people as critical to the failure of civilization. We show that whether the short sighted phenotype will be an evolutionary stable strategy (and thus lead to the collapse of civilization) depends on the initial proportion of short sighted people relative to people with foresight as well as their relative discount rates. Further we explore some comparative static results that connect the probability of the game continuing and the relative size of the two discount rates to the likelihood that civilization will collapse.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Civilization and the evolution of short sighted agents|
|English Title:||Civilization and the evolution of short sighted agents|
|Keywords:||society; breakdown; evolution; replicator; dynamic; process; civilization; conflict; institution|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, and Operations
N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
|Depositing User:||Atin Basuchoudhary|
|Date Deposited:||26. Nov 2008 03:03|
|Last Modified:||23. Feb 2013 15:27|
Aumann, R. (1987) "Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality." Econometrica, 55: 1-18.
Bearden, J.N. (2001) "The Evolution of Inefficiency in a simulated Stag Hunt." Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers, 33(2): 124-129.
David, Paul. (1985) "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY." American Economic Review, 75: 332-337.
Diamond, Jared. (2005) Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Press, New York.
Dixit, Avinash; Skeath, Susan. (1999) Games of Strategy. W.W. Norton & Company, New York.
Emmott, R. (2006) "Museum Explores Peru's Shining Path." Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/21/AR2006102100652.html (accessed 14 November 2008).
Gardner, R. (2003) Games for Business and Economics. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, N.J.
Gintis, H. (2000) Game Theory Evolving - A Problem Centered Introduction to Modeling Strategic Interaction. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
Harsanyi, J.C.; Selten, R. (1988). A General Theory of Equilibrium in Games. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Mailath, G.J. (1998) "Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons From Evolutionary Game Theory." Journal of Economic Literature, 36: 1347-1374.
North, Douglas. (2005) Understanding the process of economic change. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Poundstone, W. (1992). Prisoner's Dilemma. Doubleday, New York.
Rousseau, J.J. (1984) A Discourse on Inequality. Translated by Maurice Cranston. Penguin, London.
Selten, R. (1975) "Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept For Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games." International Journal of Game Theory, 4: 25-55.
Tuchman, B. (1984) The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. Ballantine: New York.
Weibull, J. W. (1997). Evolutionary Game Theory. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Wilson, E. (1998). Consilience. Knopf: New York.