Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2008): From Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash. Published in: VoxEU-CEPR (August 2008): pp. 1-9.
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The standard pattern: capital flows into the new “hot” nation, but then stop or reverses forcing painful adjustment. This column presents research based on such episodes from 181 nations during 1980-2007 and for a subset of 66 nations for the 1960-2007 period. If the pattern of the past few decades holds true, emerging market economies may be facing a darkening future.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||From Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash|
|English Title:||From Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Cras|
|Keywords:||international capital flows, crses procyclical polices|
|Subjects:||N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations|
|Depositing User:||Carmen Reinhart|
|Date Deposited:||02. Dec 2008 09:02|
|Last Modified:||19. Mar 2014 11:36|
Calvo, Guillermo A., “Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops,” Journal of Applied Economics 1, no. 1 (1998): 35-54.
2 “Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present,” CEPR Discussion Paper 6996, October 2008.
3 The charts and tables below have been updated with the recently released IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2008).
4 In the paper, we also consider inflation crises; for crisis definitions see Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises” NBER Working Paper 13882, March 2008.