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Una Nota sobre Reserva Óptima y Riesgo Soberano: el caso Argentino 1997-2007

Zarate, Cristina A. (2008): Una Nota sobre Reserva Óptima y Riesgo Soberano: el caso Argentino 1997-2007.

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Abstract

It has been observed in the last years a systematic process of reserve accumulation from emerging countries, even though is a clear consequence of international liquidity it is worth asking ourselves the purpose and the limits of applying this policies by Monetary Officials.

The purpose herein is to resume the debate on Optimum Reserves in Argentina, from the analysis of our recent past and on the basis of three stylized facts that have hindered our growth on a long term stable path: Debt crisis, Bank or financial crisis and currency exchange crisis. Taking into account the Default declaration in 2001 and the enormous adjustment that our economy had to face, reflecting on the “Productive model” implemented in 2003, I propose to find the optimum level of reserves given a probability of default for the period 1997-2007. Likewise, in order to overcome the static feature of the previous issue, a possible dynamic extension is presented through the calculus of variations theory, appealing to a hypothetical situation in order to analyze the analytical results found.

The most important result that is reached is that during the 90s the level of reserves studied is much lower than the optimum, while in the following decade this trend is reverted obtaining since 2007 an accumulation surplus on these assets. Finally, when incorporating the adjustment costs to the issue of optimization it was possible to obtain a “genuine” reserve feature, that is, a flow demand that represents the desired variations in the reserve stock.This allows inferring accumulation policies that the policy maker should apply, to obtain the desired optimum stock.

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