Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model?

Westerlund, Joakim and Basher, Syed A. (2006): Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model? Unpublished.

Abstract

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: York University
• Language: English
• Keywords: Monetary Exchange Rate Model; Forecasting; Panel Data; Pooling; Bootstrap
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F47 - Forecasting and Simulation; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; Bootstrap Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C33 - Models with Panel Data

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