Majumder, Rajarshi (2008): Infrastructure for Sustainable Growth: A Demand Projection Exercise for India. Published in: Journal of Quantitative Economics , Vol. 5, No. 2 (December 2007)
Download (225Kb) | Preview
Critical precondition for attaining growth and sustainable development is availability of a host of infrastructural facilities in adequate quantity and of reliable quality. The association between the latter and growth is well documented and a large number of theoretical propositions conclude that the association is quite strong and runs from the former to the latter. India, on attaining independence, accorded highest importance to the development of infrastructural facilities and lion’s share of the plan outlays were on this sector. This resulted in a remarkable growth in such facilities. But the recent spurt in actual and target growth rates has been associated with substantial shortages in the physical availability of infrastructural facilities. To achieve and sustain the growth targets such shortages must be removed. This should start with determining the likely demand for these facilities both at current levels of economic intensity and at levels corresponding to desired growth rates. In this paper we seek to forecast the demand for selected infrastructural facilities for India over the next decade and a half so that we have an idea regarding the magnitude of the task facing the economy. In addition to projecting physical quantum of demand for those facilities, we also attempt at indicating the financial implications of realising those levels. The projected demand is substantially larger than the present availability and the task becomes harder as not only population will rise in future but the per capita demand would also increase. The Capacity Addition required would call in for huge investment amounting to a Capital outlay of 6-6.2 per cent of GDP for the five selected sectors only. One possible way to dent into this awesome job is to use a dual strategy. Along with heavy investment in creation of new physical stock of infrastructural facilities, one must also aim at improving the utilization rate and operational efficiency of existing stock.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Infrastructure for Sustainable Growth: A Demand Projection Exercise for India|
|Keywords:||Infrastructure; Demand Projection; Sustainable Growth;|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H54 - Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables > C33 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O21 - Planning Models; Planning Policy
|Depositing User:||Rajarshi Majumder|
|Date Deposited:||17. Jan 2009 09:26|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 02:25|
Amin, Poornima (1990) - Infrastructure and Regional Distribution of Small Scale Industries in Gujarat, Asian Economic Review, Vol. 32, No. 3.
Antle, John M. (1983) - Infrastructure and Aggregate Agricultural Productivity : International Evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 31, No. 3, 1983
Arun Kumar, A. V. and C. Upendranath (1993) - Infrastructure Development in India: an Alternative Approach to Measurement, Productivity, Vol. 34, No. 3, 1993
Aschauer, David A. (1989) - Is Public Expenditure Productive?, Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 23, March, 1989
Canning, D. and Marianne Fay (1993) - The Effect of Transportation Networks on Economic Growth, Columbia University Working Papers, New York, 1993
Conrad, K. and H. Seitz (1997) - Infrastructure Provision and International Market Share Rivalry, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 27, 1997
Crihfield, J.B. and M.P.H. Panggabean (1995) - Is Public Infrastructure Productive? A Metropolitan Perspective Using New Capital Stock Estimates, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 25, 1995
da Silva Costa, J., R.W. Ellson and R.C. Martin (1987) - Public Capital Regional Output and Development: Some Empirical Evidence, Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1987
Dadibhavi, R.V. (1991) - Disparities in Social Infrastructural Development in India : 1970-71 to 1984-85, Asian Economic Review, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1991
Dasgupta, Biplab (1971) - Socio-Economic Classification of Districts - A Statistical Approach, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 6, No. 33.
Easterly, W. and S. Rebelo (1993) - Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No.2
Evans, Paul and G. Karras (1994) - Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of US States, Review of Economic and Statistics, Vo1.76, No. l, February
Evans, Paul and G. Karras (1994) - Is Government Capital Productive? Evidence from a Panel of Seven Countries, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vo1.16, No.2, Spring
Fay, M. (1999) - Financing the Future: Infrastructure Needs in Latin America 2000-05, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2545, World Bank (available from http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php)
Garcia, Mila (1992) - The Contribution of Publicly Provided Inputs to States' Economies, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 22, No. 2
Gayithri, K. (1997) - Role of Infrastructure in the Industrial Development of Karnataka: A District Level Analysis, Arthavijnana, Vol. 39, No. 2.
Ghosh, B. and P. De (1998) - Role of Infrastructure in Regional Development - A Study over the Plan Period, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 33, No. 47-48.
Gulati, S.C. (1977) - Dimensions of Inter-District Disparities, Indian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 9, No. 2.
Hansen, N. (1965) - The Structure and Determinants of Local Public Investment Expenditure, Review of Economics and Statistics (47).
Hirschman, A. O. (1958) - The Strategy of Economic Development, Yale University Press, New Haven.
Holtz-Eakin, Douglas (1994) - Public Sector Capital and Productivity Puzzle, Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 976, No. 1, February, 1994
Hulten, C.R. and G.E. Peterson (1984) - The Public Capital Stock: Needs Trends and Performances, American Economic Review Vol. 74, May, 1984
Looney, R. and P. Fredericksen (1981) - The Regional Impact of Infrastructure Investment in Mexico, Regional Studies , Vol. 15, No. 4, 1981
Majumder, R. (2005) - Infrastructure and Regional Development: Interlinkages in India, Indian Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 2, 2005
Nurkse, R. (1953) - Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries, Oxford.
Pal, M. N. (1975) - Regional Disparities in the Level of Development in India, Indian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 7, No. 1.
Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1943) - Problems of Industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, The Economic Journal.
Rostow, W. W. (1960) - The Stages of Economic Growth A Non Communist Manifesto, Cambridge University Press.
Shah, Narottam (1970) - Overall Summary : Infrastructure for the Indian Economy, in Vadilal Dagli (ed) ‘Infrastructure for the Indian Economy’, 1970.
Shri Prakash (1977) - Regional Inequalities and Economic Development with Special Reference to Infrastructural Facilities in India, Indian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 9, No. 2.
Tewari, R.T. (1984) - Economic Infrastructure and Regional Development in India, Man and Development, Vol. 6, No. 4.