Sadni Jallab, Mustapha and Karingi, Stephen and Oulmane, Nassim and Perez, Romain and Lang, Rémi and Ben Hammouda, Hakim (2005): Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements.
Download (1MB) | Preview
Th is study examines the economic and social impacts of the trade liberalization aspects of the proposed Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and African countries. It provides a quantitative assessment of the likely implications of EPAs establishing Free Trade Areas (FTAs) between the EU and the various African Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Th e focus of the empirical analysis is on the trade liberalization component of the EPAs. In particular, the following questions are addressed. First, how will an EPA that includes reciprocal market access agreements between the EU and Africa impact on African countries’ GDPs, levels of employment and other macroeconomic aggregates? Second, what sectors in Africa are most likely to lose and what sectors gain with EPAs? Th ird, what are the welfare implications for African countries from the EPAs? Fourth, how will the formation of EPAs aff ect trade expansion through trade creation and trade diversion eff ects? Fifth, what are the potential fi scal implications of the EPAs? Th e main conclusions drawn from the results and the discussions are that full reciprocity will be very costly for Africa irrespective of how the issue is looked at. A focus on deepening integration with a view to enhancing intra-African trade would provide positive results. But it is the scenario that off ers unrestricted market access for Africa, which deals eff ectively with barriers associated with sensitive European products, that portends the largest gain for the continent. Even with reciprocity, a free trade area that includes sectors of export interest to Africa and one that deals with non-tariff barriers promises positive results for African countries.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements|
|Keywords:||EPA- Africa- Europe|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations|
|Depositing User:||Mustapha Sadni Jallab|
|Date Deposited:||21. Jan 2009 14:58|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 11:35|
Adams, P., M. Horridge, B. Parmenter, and X. Zhang, 1997, “Long-run Eff ects on China of APEC Trade Liberalization”, Unpublished paper based on a report prepared for the East Asia Analytical Unit, Department of Foreign Aff airs and Trade, Canberra, Australia.
Brockmeier, M., 2001, “A Graphical Exposition of the GTAP Model”, GTAP Technical Paper No. 8, Revised March 2001.
Busse, M., A. Borrmann, and H. GroBmann, 2004, “Th e Impact of ACP/EU Economic Partnership Agreements on ECOWAS Countries: An Empirical Analysis of the Trade and Budget Eff ects”, Final Report, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg, Germany.
COMESA, 2002, “Discussion Paper on Trade Policy Compatibility and Impact Assessment of Economic Partnership Agreements and Preliminary Adjustment Scenarios”, COMESA Secretariat, Lusaka, Zambia.
Dixon, P.B., B.R. Parmenter, J. Sutton, and D.P. Vincent, ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, North-Holland Publishing Company.
ECA, 2004, Assessment of Regional Integration in Africa, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa ECA, forthcoming, Trade Liberalization under the Doha Development Agenda: Options and Consequences for Africa, Trade and Regional Integration Division, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa
EUROSTEP, 2004, “New ACP-EU Trade Arrangements: New Barriers to Eradicating Poverty?”, EUROSTEP, Brussels, Belgium
Hertel, T.W., 1997, Global Trade Analysis: Modelling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York and Cambridge.
Johansen, L., 1960, A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam (2nd Edition 1974).
Karingi, S.N., M. Siriwardana, and E.E. Ronge, 2002, Implications of the COMESA Free Trade Area and Proposed Customs Union: Empirical Evidence from Five Member Countries using GTAP Model and Database, COMESA, Lusaka Zambia.
Kehoe, P.J. and T.J. Kehoe, 1994, “A Primer on Static Applied General Equilibrium Models”, Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Spring Issue, pp. 2-16.
Laird S. and A. Yeats, 1986, “Th e UNCTAD Trade Policy Simulation Model: A Note on the Methodology, Data and Uses”, UNCTAD Discussion Paper No. 19, Geneva.
Meyn, M., 2004, “Are Economic Partnership Agreements likely to Promote or Constrain Regional Integration in Southern Africa? Options, Limits and Challenges Botswana, Mauritius, and Mozambique are Facing”, NEPRU Working Paper No. 96, Th e Namibian Economic Policy Research Unit, Windhoek,Namibia.
Milner, C., O. Morrissey, and A. McKay, 2002, “Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Eff ects of Economic Partnership Agreements: Th e Case of the EU-EAC”, mimeo, CREDIT, University of Nottingham.Morrissey, O., C. Milner, and A. McKay, A Critical Assessment of Proposed EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements, CREDIT Research Paper, University of Nottingham
Panagariya, A., 1995, “Rethinking the New Regionalism”, Paper Presented at the UNDP-World Bank Trade Expansion Conference, January 1995, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Siriwardana, M., 2001, “Some Trade Liberalization Options for Sri Lanka”, East Asian Studies Review Volume 25 Number 4, pp 453-477.
Tekere, M. and D. Ndlela, 2003, Impact Assessment of Economic Partnership Agreements on Southern African Development Community and Preliminary Adjustment Scenarios, Final Report, Trade and Development Studies Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe.
World Bank, 2003, Global Economic Prospects 2004: Realising the Development Promise of the Doha Round. Washington, D.C.