Albu, Lucian-Liviu and Pelinescu, Elena (2000): Sustainability of public debt: a theoretical and empirical investigation. Published in: Revue Roumaine des Sciences Economiques , Vol. 45, No. 1 : pp. 101-127.
Download (486kB) | Preview
At the beginning of the transition period, the public debt in Romania was insignificant. However, during the following years, the accumulating process accelerated. Although the indebtedness degree continues to be smaller than registered levels in other European countries, more dangerous could be its accelerating trend in conditions of some not so very high-performing macroeconomic policy management. The present study attempts to answer certain problems related to the governing mechanism of the public debt accumulation. Particularly, it examines: a) some significant implications of the public sector deficits on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators; b) certain factors having impact on sustainability degree; and c) possibilities for setting up fundamental parameters and a time horizon to stop the debt accumulation process. Certain plausible hypotheses will be selected and some likely evolutions will be simulated.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Sustainability of public debt: a theoretical and empirical investigation|
|Keywords:||public debt; sustainability function; primary deficit; interest rate|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
P - Economic Systems > P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies > P27 - Performance and Prospects
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
|Depositing User:||Lucian Liviu Albu|
|Date Deposited:||16. Apr 2009 23:38|
|Last Modified:||17. Feb 2013 17:45|
Barro, R. (1988): The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, NBER, Working Paper, No. 2685.
Blanchard, O. J. (1990): Suggestion for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators, OECD Working Paper, 79, Paris.
Budina, N., Malisyewski, W., and De Menil, G. (1998): Monetary Policy, Demand for Money and Inflation in Romania, July, Annex 3.
Buiter, W. H. (1985): Guide to Public Sector Debt and Defi¬cits, Economic Policy, Volume 1, November.
Chalk, N. (1998): Fiscal Sustainability with Non- Renewable Resources, IMF Working Paper, March.
Coricelli, F. (1997): Fiscal Policy a Long Term View, in: Fiscal Policy in Transition, Economic Policy Initiative, 3, Forum Report of the Economic Policy Initiative.
Croitoru, L. (1996): Politica fiscala Romaniei in perioada 1990-1995, CEMAT.
Cuddington, J. (1996): Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries, Economics Department Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.20057-1045, 3-31-1997 revision.
Dornbusch, R. (1987): Debts and Deficits, Leuven and MIT University Press.
Eisner, R. (1989): Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality, Journal of Economic Perspectives, November.
Fetherston, M. J. and Godley, W. A. H. 1978): New Cambridge Macroeconomics and Global Monetarism: Some Issues in the Contact of UK Economic Policy, in: Brunner, K. and Metzler, A. H. (eds.), Public Policies in Open Economies, Amsterdam, North Holland.
Garcia, F. (1998): Public Debt Sustainability and Demand for Monetary Base, Working Papers IMF.
Kosterna, U. (1997): The Fiscal Policy Stance in Central and Eastern Europe in Comparison to European Union Countries, Economic Policy Initiative, 3, Forum Report of the Economic Policy Initiative.
Laurens, B. and Piedra, E. (1998): Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies, IMF Working Paper, WP-98-25.
Lienert, I., Marciniak, P., and Swiderski, K. (1997): Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, International Monetary Fund.
Olding-Smee, J. and Riley, C. (1985): Approaches to the PSBR, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, August.
Rocha, R. R. and Saldanha, F. (1992): Fiscal and Quasi Fiscal Deficits, Nominal and Real Measurement and Policy Issues, Working Paper, WPS.
Roubini, N. and Sachs, J. (1989): Government spending and budget deficits in the industrial countries, Economic Policy, April.
Spaventa, L. (1988): Is there a public debt problem in Italy?, in: Giavazzi, F. and Spaventa, L. (eds.), High Public Debt – The Italian Experience, CEPR-Cambridge University Press.
Stournaras, Y. (1990): Public Sector Debt and Deficits in Greece: The Experience of the 1980s and Future Prospects, Revista di POLITICA ECONOMICA, VII-VIII, Roma, July-August.
Wilcox, D. (1989): Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implication of the Present Value Borrowing Constraint, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 21, August.
*** International Monetary Fund (1996): World Economic Outlook, Focus on Fiscal Policy, May.
*** OECD (1989): Special Features, Macroeconomic Stabilisation and Restructuring Social Policy – Romania, Economic Survey.
*** OECD (1999): Economic Survey of Ireland, appendix 2, Paris, OCDE, 1998/1999.
*** STANDARD&POOR’S (1999): Analysis - ROMANIA, Sovereign Rating Service, August.