Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962.

Matesanz Gómez, David and Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe (2006): Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962.

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for non-stationary data and vector error correction models, this paper examines the determinants of trade balance for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among trade balance, Real Exchange Rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different real exchange rate management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is examined and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the trade balance checking the J-curve pattern.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Argentina; Marshall-Lerner; J-Curve; cointegration and impulse response analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange

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