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Адекватность кривых Хабберта для прогнозирования темпов добычи нефти

Bazhanov, Andrei and Vyscrebentsev, Alexei (2005): Адекватность кривых Хабберта для прогнозирования темпов добычи нефти. Published in: Izvestiya VUZov: Neft I Gas No. 2 (2008): pp. 41-48.

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Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Using alternate criteria, we compare the dynamics of oil extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We show that this approach provides a model that is inconsistent with the reserve estimates, and so it cannot be used as an accurate tool for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction.

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