Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2009): Sustainable trends in producer price indices.
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Previously, linear trends were revealed in the differences between the headline CPI and the price indices for various subcategories of the CPI in the United States. These trends can be continuous, as observed with the price index for medical care, or piecewise with turning points between trends with opposite signs. Similar features are found for the PPI and its components. The presence of sustainable trends in the differences allows prediction of prices for various commodities at time horizons of several years. In addition, it is possible to time the start of transition to the next trend. Accordingly, the trends reduce the uncertainty in forecasting prices for major commodities and also for their small components. The usage of trends in the PPI could bring substantial benefits to producers (planning) and stock market participants (timely investment).
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Sustainable trends in producer price indices|
|Keywords:||PPI, CPI, US, prediction|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
|Depositing User:||Ivan Kitov|
|Date Deposited:||14. May 2009 00:09|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 00:49|
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ), pp. 101-112.
Kitov, I., (2009). Apples and oranges: relative growth rate of consumer price indices, MPRA Paper 13587, University Library of Munich, Germany, mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13587/01/MPRA_paper_13587.pdf
Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009). A fair price for motor fuel in the United States, MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany, mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15039/01/MPRA_paper_15039.pdf