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Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK

Kitov, Ivan (2009): Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK.

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Abstract

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modelled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in country-specific age population. The trend is an inverse function of real GDP per capita with constant numerator. Similar analysis was conducted for the USA and Japan.

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