General correcting formula of forecasting?

Harin, Alexander (2009): General correcting formula of forecasting? Unpublished.

Abstract

A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: forecasting; prediction; forecasting correction; planning
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

References

Allais, M. (1953) “Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école Américaine” Econometrica 21, 503-46.

Di Mauro, C. and Maffioletti, A. (2004) “Attitudes to risk and attitudes to uncertainty: experimental evidence” Applied Economics, 36, 357-372.

Ellsberg, D. (1961) Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, 643-669.

Harin, А. (2009-2) “About existance of ruptures in the probability scale. Calculation of ruptures’ values” accepted to Ninth International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2009. (in Russian)

Harin, А. (2009) “To development of a correcting formula of forecasting for complex systems” accepted to Ninth International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2009. (in Russian)

Harin, А. (2008) “To development of a general formula of forecasting” 51 scientific conference of MIPT “Modern problems of fundamental and applied sciences” 2008. (in Russian)

Harin, А. (2007) “ Principle of uncertain future, examples of its application in economics, potentials of its applications in theories of complex systems, in set theory, probability theory and logic” Seventh International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2007. (in Russian)

Harin, A. (2005) “A new approach to solve old problems” Game Theory and Information from Economics Working Paper Archive at WUSTL, 0505005.

Hey, J. and Orme, C. (1994) “Investigating Generalizations of Expected Utility Theory Using Experimental Data” Econometrica, 62, 1291-1326.

Karassev, V. (2007) private communication.

Kasa, K. (2000) “A robust Hansen-Sargent prediction formula” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2000.

Novosyolov A. (2009) private communication.

Quiggin, J. (2005) “The precautionary principle in environmental policy and the theory of choice under uncertainty” No WPM05_3, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers from Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.

Tsay, R. (2008) “Lecture 7: Forecasting, Time Series Analysis” http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ruey.tsay/teaching/bs41910/lec7.pdf