Munich Personal RePEc Archive

PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2009): PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016.

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Abstract

It was demonstrated that the difference between the PPI of durable and nondurable goods can be predicted at a several year horizon. The prediction consists of three steps. First, we show that the difference between producer price index for durable and nondurable goods is characterized by the presence of sustainable mid-term trends. Second, the evolution of the difference is predicted at a five to ten-year horizon as an extrapolation of the previously observed behavior. Third, considering the overall PPI to be practically constant over the next decade one can expect an overall decline in nondurables price and equivalent increase in that for durables.

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