Asghar, Zahid (2009): ELG hypothesis is valid for India: An Evidence from Structural Causality. Unpublished.
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Causality is important for empirical analysis in economics but not easily detected. Therefore, it is always important that one should investigate the problem not only on statistical grounds but also add extra statistical information which may come from economic events happening over a time about the problem under study. This extra statistical information helps in introducing asymmetry in the relationship. Most of the studies are based on Granger Causality for determining causal direction between export and economic growth for individual countries. In this paper we use a method suggested by Hoover (2001) for detecting causality which incorporates extra statistical information, economic theory and statistical analysis. We apply this technique to a simulated data and also apply it to the export-led growth hypothesis for India. Our results indicate that there is unidirectional causality from export to economic growth.
| Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Structural Causality, Conditional and Marginal probability distributions, Granger Causality, Export Led Economic Growth |
| Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics |
| ID Code: | 16429 |
| Deposited By: | Dr. Zahid Asghar |
| Deposited On: | 30. Jul 2009 01:44 |
| Last Modified: | 30. Jul 2009 01:44 |
| References: | Freedman, D.A (1991) “Statistical models and Shoe leather” with discussion by R, Berkand Mason, Sociological Methodology, 291-313 Granger, C. W. J. (July, 1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods” Econometrica, Vol. 37, 424-438 Herzer.D, nowak-Lehmann D., Siliverstovs (2006) “Export-led growth in chile: assessing the role of export composition in productivity growth” The Developing Economies 44 (3), 306–328. Hoover, D. (2001) “ Causality in Macroeconomics” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Reizman, R.G., P.M.Summers, and C.H. Whiteman(1996). The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of the Export-led Growth, Empirical Economics, 21, pp.77-113 Suppes,P. (1970). A Probabilistic Theory of Causality,. Amsterdam,North- Holland Pub. Co. |
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