The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output

Galindev, Ragchaasuren (2008): The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output. Unpublished.

Abstract

This paper extends Galor and Weil's (2000) unified growth model on the evolution of population, technology and output by replacing the parental utility function in which consumption and children are unrelated, with a more general specification in which some commodities are unrelated with children while the others are substitutes. Considering some leisure goods as the substitutes for children, it aims to explain the demographic transition from high to low fertility with the observed increase in the relative price of children to that of leisure goods along with Galor and Weil's quality-quantity mechanism based on the observed increase in the educational attainments. This modification leads to a conclusion that the demographic transition is a natural phenomenon in this environment when children become relatively more expensive than leisure goods, even for a given level of education and a given price of leisure goods. In addition, an increase in education and a decrease in the price of leisure goods contribute to the demographic transition.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Malthusian Regime, Modern Growth, Demographic Transition
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth; O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes; O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

References

Becker, G., 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility" in Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Universities-NBER Conference Series 11, pp. 209-231.

Becker, G., 1981. A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard Press.

Becker, G., Lewis, H, G., 1973. On the Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of Political Economy, 81, pp. S279-S288.

Becker, G., Murphy, K. M., Tamura, R., 1990. Human Capital, Fertility and Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98, pp. 12-37.

Boldrin, M., Jones, L., 2002. Mortality, Fertility and Saving in a Malthusian Economy. Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, pp. 775-814.

Clark, G., 2003. The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1200-2000: Marna Carta to Tony Blair. University of California, Davis.

Doepke, M., 2004. Accounting for Fertility During the Transition to Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 9 (3), pp. 347-383.

Fernandez-Villaverde, J., 2001. Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics. University of Pennsylvania.

Francis, N., Ramey, A. V., 2008. A Century of Work and Leisure. forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Galor, O., 2005. From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory. Handbook of Economic Growth, 171-293.

Galor, O., Moav, O., 2002. Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp. 1133-1192.

Galor, O., Weil, D., 1996. The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth. American Economic Review, 86, pp. 374-387.

Galor, O., Weil, D., 1999. From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth. American Economic Review, 89, pp. 150-154.

Galor, O., Weil, D., 2000. Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition. American Economic Review, 110, pp. 806-828.

Greenwood, J., Seshadri, A., 2002. The U.S. Demographic Transition. American Economic Review, 92, pp. 153-159.

Jones, C., 2001. Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run. Advances in Macroeconomics, Volume 1, Issue 2, Article 1.

Hansen, G., Prescott, E., 2002. Malthus to Solow. American Economic Review, 92(4), pp. 1205-1217.

Kögel, T., Prskawets, A., 2001. Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap. Journal of Economic Growth, 6(4), pp. 337-357.

Kopecky, K., 2005. The Trends in Retirement. Research Report no. 12, Economie d'avant garde, Department of Economics, University of Rochester.

Lagerlof. N., 2006. The Galor-Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative Exploration. Review of Economic Dynamics 9, pp. 116-142.

Lebergott, S., 1996. Consumer Expenditures: New Measures and Old Motives. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

Tamura, R., 2002. Human Capital and the Switch from Agriculture to Industry. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27(2), pp. 207-242.

Vandenbroucke, G., 2005. The Trends in Hours: The U.S. from 1900 to 1950. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.