Oliver, Azuara (2009): Does Poverty Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico.
Download (4Mb) | Preview
What is the long term effect of cash transfers (CT) on rural migration? CT programs have demonstrated to increase human capital investments of poor families by increasing nutrition, health and schooling levels. How- ever, there is little evidence on the long term effects of CT programs particularly on migration decisions. Progresa-Oportunidades, the pioneer Mexican CT program that started in 1997, would give some evidence for this open question. I examine the sudden drop in the population size and gender composition of Mexican rural villages where this program was implemented between 1998 and 2005. I use a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the program on villages located on the margin of the poverty distribution and close to the cutoff point of the eligibility criteria. The average population in a fully covered village decreased by 70 people in 2005 compared to 1995 (almost 10 percent of the average population of 1995). Sixty five percent of this reduction corresponds to adults who left their villages and forty percent of this reduction can be attributed to Progresa-Oportunidades. The reduction of adult population of males is 6 times higher than for females, a clear sign of a significant increase in the migration patterns of this population.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Does Poverty Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico|
|Keywords:||Progresa; Oportunidades; Mexico; CCT; Migration|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
|Depositing User:||Oliver Azuara|
|Date Deposited:||30. Sep 2009 23:57|
|Last Modified:||22. Feb 2013 16:16|
Acemoglu, Daron. 1998. Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1055-1089 .
Adato, M., B. de la Brière, D. Mindek, and A. Quisumbing (2000). "Final Report: The Impact of PROGRESA on Women's Status and Intrahousehold Relations," July. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
Behrman, Jere R. and Petra E. Todd. (1999) Randomness in the Experimental Samples of Progresa (Education, Health, and Nutrition Program). IFPRI
Borjas, George J. 1999. The Economic Analysis of Immigration. In Orley C. Ashenfelter and David Card, eds., Handbook of Labor Economics, Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp.1697-1760.
Borjas, George J. 2003. The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4): 1335- 1374.
Chiquiar, Daniel and Gordon Hanson. 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the U.S.." Journal of Political Economy, April 113(2): 239-281.
CONAPO 1995, 2000 and 2005. "Índices de marginación, 2000. Anexo C Metodología de estimación del índice de marginación." http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/2000.htm
Gertler, Paul J. (2000). "Final Report: The Impact of PROGRESA on Health," November. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
Glazerman, Steven, Dan M. Levy, and David Myers (2003). "Nonexperimental Versus Experimental Estimates of Earnings Impacts," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 589 (1),63-93.
Hahn, Jinyong, Petra Todd, and Wilbert Van der Klaauw (1999). "Identication and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Working Paper, November 1999.
Hanson, Gordon H. 2006. Illegal Migration from Mexico to the U.S. Journal of Economic Literature, December.
Heckman, James, and Bo Honore. 1990. The Empirical Content of the Roy Model. Econometrica, 58(5): 1121-49
Hoddinott, J., E. Skoufias, and R. Washburn (2000). "The Impact of PROGRESA on Consumption: A Final Report," International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
LaLonde, Robert and Robert Topel. 1997. Economic Impact of International Migration and Migrants. In Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds., Handbook of Population and Family Economics, (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science): 799-850.
Lustig, Jens and Douglas L. Miller (2005). "Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Paper 11702.
Parker, S., and E. Skouas (2000). "Final Report: The Impact of PROGRESA on Work, Leisure, and Time Allocation," October. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
Roy, A.D. 1951. Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Earnings. Oxford Economic Papers 3: 135-146.
Schultz T. P (2004) "School subsidies for the Poor: Evaluating the Mexican Progresa Poverty Program" Journal of Development Economics 74(1) 199-250
Skoufias, E (2002). PROGRESA and Its Impacts on the Welfare of Rural Households in Mexico, International Food Policy Research Institute, Research Report 139, Washington, DC
Skoufias, E., Davies, B and de la Vega, S. (1999), Targeting the poor in Mexico: an evaluation of the selection of households into PROGRESA ", mimeo, International Food Policy Research Institute.
Skofiuas, Emmanuel (2005). "PROGRESA and Its Impacts on the Welfare of Rural Households in Mexico," IFPRI Research Report No. 139. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
Skofiuas, Emmanuel, Benjamin Davis, and Sergio de la Vega. 2001. Targeting the poor in Mexico: evaluation of the selection of beneciary households into PROGRESA. World Development. Forthcoming.
Steckov, G., Winters, P., Stampini, M. and Davis, B. (2003), Can public transfers reduce Mexican migration? A study based on randomized experimental data", ESA WP 03-16, Food and Agriculture Organization
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2002). "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," International Economic Review, Vol 43(4)