An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors

Dewachter, Hans and Iania, Leonardo (2009): An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors. Unpublished.

Abstract

This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return forecasting (risk premium) factor is extracted by imposing a single factor structure on the one-period expected excess holding returns. The model is estimated on US data using MCMC techniques. Two findings stand out. First, the model outperforms significantly most structural and non-structural Macro-Finance yield curve models in terms of cross-sectional fit of the yield curve. Second, we find that financial shocks, either in the form of liquidity or risk premium shocks have a statistically and economically significant impact on the yield curve. The impact of financial shocks extends throughout the yield curve and is most pronounced at the high- and intermediate frequencies.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Term structure, Macro-finance, TED spread, Interbank lending rates
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis

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