Woldie, Getachew Abebe and Siddig, Khalid (2009): The impact of banning export of cereals in response to soaring food prices: Evidences from Ethiopia using the new GTAP African database.
Download (292kB) | Preview
In the poorest countries like Ethiopia the spillover effects of a soaring food price is unbearable. To mitigate the recent rise in food prices and the burden on urban poor consumers, different measures have been considered by policy makers. Recently, Ethiopia banned the export of all grain products in a bid to stem huge price hikes. The export of indigenous grains, including the staple grains, like teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat are suspended indefinitely. Using the standard GTAP model and the recent GTAP Africa database, this paper simulates the overall implication of banning export of grains. Regarding the impact on prices, the simulation result tells us that prices are likely to fall. At macro level, the result reveals trade balance will not be decline following such actions. However, it has been shown that in terms of overall welfare the policy has a devastating impact as the country will likely to lose welfare equivalent of $ 148 million.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The impact of banning export of cereals in response to soaring food prices: Evidences from Ethiopia using the new GTAP African database|
|Keywords:||Food price inflation;- export ban;- WTO:- Ethiopia;- GTAP|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade
D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
|Depositing User:||Getachew Abebe Woldie|
|Date Deposited:||02. Nov 2009 06:07|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 13:15|
Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. (2009). Country and Regional Level Consumer Price Indices: for the Month of Januray 2009. Information No. 16, Addis Ababa.
Fortune. (2008). Soft Heart Hard Head. Vol.9 No. 441. October 12 edition, Addis Ababa.
Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R. (1996). Computing Solutions for Large GeneralEquilibrium Models Using GEMPACK, Computational Economics, vol. 9(2): 83-127.
Hertel, T.W. (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, CambridgeUniversity Press.
International Monetary Fund ( 2008a). Food and Fuel Prices: Recent developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses. Washington DC: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/091908.pdf
International Monetary Fund.(2008b). Fuel and Food Price Subsidies: Issues and Reform Options, Washington DC. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/090808a.pdf
Mitra, S. and Josling T. (2009). Agricultural Export Restrictions: Welfare implications and Trade Disciplines. IPC Position Paper. International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council.
Ulimwengu, J., Workneh, S., & Paulos, Z. (2009). Impact of Soaring Food Price in Ethiopia: Does Location Matter? IFPRI Discussion paper 00846. Washington D.C: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Villoria. N. (2008). Estimation of Missing Intra-African Trade: GTAP Research Memorandum No. 12, Purde University.
von Braun, J., Ahmed, A., Asenso-Okyere, K., Fan, S., Gulati, A., Hoddingott, J., et al. (2008). High Food Prices: The What, Who, and How of Proposed Policy Actions. Policy Brief. International Food Policy Research Institute, Waschnigton.
Woldie, Getachew A., and Siddig, Khalid (2009). Do Subsidies Matter in Response to Soaring Food Prices? Evidences from Ethiopia. Selected paper for the 12th annual conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile (June2009).
World Bank. (2008). Rising food prices:Policy options and World Bank response. A note http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/risingfoodprices_backgroundnote_apr08.pdf.
World Food Program.(2008). Ethiopia Market Watch, October Edition