Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?

Olafsdottir, Katrin and Sigurdsson, Kari (2007): Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?

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Abstract

Every month the commercial banks in Iceland publish their inflation forecast for the coming month. This paper examines how accurate these forecasts were from 2000 to 2006. Most of the forecasts have similar accuracy where the inflation rate in the month in question is underestimated by 2 to 6 points. We did not find that a forecast is more likely to be accurate in a specific month if it was accurate in the previous month.

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