Munich Personal RePEc Archive

International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks

Escaith, Hubert and Gonguet, Fabien (2009): International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks. Published in: Staff Working Paper ERSD No. 2009-06 (May 2009)

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Abstract

The article analyses the role of international supply chains as transmission channels of a financial shock. Because individual firms are interdependent and rely on each other, either as supplier of intermediate goods or client for their own production, an exogenous financial shock affecting a single firm, such as the termination of a line of credit, reverberates through the productive chain. The transmission of the initial financial shock through real channels is tracked by modelling input-output interactions. The paper indicates that when banks operate at the limit of their institutional capacity, defined by the capital adequacy ratio, and if assets are priced to market, then a resonance effect amplifies the back and forth transmission between real and monetary circuits. The paper illustrates the proposed methodology by computing a supply-driven indicator (IRSIC) and indirect demand-driven impacts on five interconnected economies of different characteristics: China, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and the United States.

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