Hoque, Serajul (2006): The Economic Impacts of Improved Foreign Investor Confidence in Bangladesh: A CGE Analysis.
Download (713kB) | Preview
This paper uses a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of Bangladesh to simulate the economic effects of attracting foreign investment by improved business confidence. The simulation results indicate that if all revenue of newly arrived capital accrues to foreign investors and the government maintains budget neutrality, in the long-run this would expand GDP slightly. In general, capital-intensive sectors experience robust expansion and labour-intensive sectors suffer a contraction in output and employment. Urban households experience increases in consumption because they are relatively heavily concentrated in manufacturing sectors that are favourably affected. In contrast, rural households experience decreases in consumption because they are relatively concentrated in the agriculture sector which is adversely affected.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Economic Impacts of Improved Foreign Investor Confidence in Bangladesh: A CGE Analysis|
|Keywords:||Business confidence; foreign direct investment; computable general equilibrium model; Bangladesh.|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E22 - Capital; Investment; Capacity
F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
|Depositing User:||Serajul Hoque|
|Date Deposited:||14. Apr 2010 16:51|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 18:06|
Armington, P.S. (1969), “The Geographic Pattern of Trade and the Effects of Price Changes”, IMF Staff Papers, XVI, July 1969, International Monetary Fund (IMF), New York, pp. 176-199.
Bandara, J.S. (1991), “Computable General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy Analysis in LDCs”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp 3-69.
Board of Investment (BOI) (2005a), “Investment Incentives”, BOI, Government of Bangladesh (GOB), Dhaka, at <http://www.boibd.org/invest_incentive.htm> accessed on 20 November 2005.
BOI (2005b), “Investment Statistics”, BOI, GOB, Dhaka, available at <http://www.boibd.org/invest_stat.htm1#d1> accessed on 22 November 2005.
BOI (2005c), “FDI in Bangladesh during 2004”, BOI, GOB, Dhaka, June 2005, available at <http://www.boibd.org/FDI_in_Bangladesh_2004.pdf> accessed on 24 November 2005.
BOI (2004), Bangladesh Investment Handbook, BOI, GOB, 2nd Edition, June 2004, Dhaka, available at <http://www.boibd.org/invest_book.html> accessed on 24 November 2005.
Business Monitor International (2005), Asia Monitor: South Asia Monitor, December 2005, Vol. 11, Issue 12, pp.2, 4, 6-7, London.
de Melo, J. (1988), “Computable General Equilibrium Models for Trade Policy Analysis in Developing Countries: A Survey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, Issue 4, pp. 469-503.
Decaluwe, B. and Martens, A. (1988), “CGE Modeling and Developing Economies: A Concise Empirical Survey of 73 Applications to 26 Countries”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, Issue 4, pp. 529-568.
Dixon, P.B. (1998), “A Theoretical Analysis of the Thai Economic Crisis”, Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics, Vol. 10, No. 1, January 1998, pp. 1-13.
Dixon, P.B., Parmenter, B.R., Sutton, J. and Vincent, D.P. (1982), ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Fontana, M. and Wobst, P. (2001), “A Gendered 1993-94 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh”, TMD Discussion Paper No. 74, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.
Giesecke, J.A.D (2000), FEDERAL-F: A Multi-Regional Multi-Sectoral Dynamic Model of the Australian Economy, PhD Thesis, School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide.
GOB (Government of Bangladesh) (2005a), Bangladesh Economic Review 2005 (Bengali version), Economic Adviser‟s Wing, Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, GOB, Dhaka, viewed on 20 November 2005 at <http://www.mof.gov.bd/economic/economic_review_bangla.html>.
GOB (2005b), Industrial Policy 2005, Ministry of Industries, GOB, Dhaka, available at <http://www.epb.gov.bd/indust_policy/industrial_%20policy_05.doc> accessed on 1 December 2005.
GOB (2003a), “Input Output Table 2000 for Bangladesh”, Sustainable Human Development Unit, Planning Commission, Ministry of Planning, GOB, Dhaka.
GOB (2003b), “Social Accounting Matrix 2000 for Bangladesh”, Unpublished document, Sustainable Human Development Unit, Planning Commission, Ministry of Planning, GOB, Dhaka.
GOB (2003c), Bangladesh Economic Review 2003, Economic Adviser‟s Wing, Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, GOB, Dhaka, available at <http://www.mof.gov.bd/previous_budget/economic_2003/economic_review_english.html> accessed on 20 November 2005.
GOB (2002), Bangladesh Economic Review 2002 (Bengali version), Economic Adviser‟s Wing, Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, GOB, Dhaka, June 2002.
Harrison, W.J. and Pearson, K.R. (1996), “Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK”, Computational Economics, Vol. 9, pp.83-127.
Hoque, S. (2006), A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Bangladesh for Analysis of Policy Reforms, PhD Thesis (under examination), Centre of Policy Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Melbourne.
Hoque, S. (2005), “The Macroeconomic and Industrial Effects of Trade Liberalisation in Bangladesh: a CGE Analysis”, presented at the Fourth International Convention of Asia Scholars, 20 - 24 August 2005, Shanghai.
Horridge, J.M., Parmenter, B.R., Cameron, M., Joubert, R., Suleman, A. and Jongh, D.de. (1995), “The Macroeconomic, Industrial, Distributional and Regional Effects of Government Spending Programs in South Africa”, General Paper No. G-109, Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, Melbourne.
IIFC (Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Center) (2005), “The Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Center”, Dhaka, viewed on 1 December 2005, <http://www.iifc.net/>.
JETRO (Japan External Trade Organisation) (2005), “The 15th Survey of Investment-Related Cost Comparison in Major Cities and Regions in Asia”, JETRO, Tokyo, at <http://www.jetro.go.jp/thailand/e/data/15thinvestsurveyeng.pdf> accessed on 30 November 2005.
Klein, L.R. and Rubin, H. (1947-1948), “A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 84-87.
Pereira, A.M. and Shoven, J.B. (1988), “Survey of Dynamic Computational General Equilibrium Models for Tax Policy Evaluation”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, Issue 3, pp. 401-436.
Powell, A.A. and Lawson, T. (1990), “A Decade of Applied General Equilibrium Modelling for Policy Work”, Chapter 8 in L. Bergman, D.W. Jorgenson and E. Zalai (Eds), General Equilibrium Modelling and Economic Policy Analysis, Blackwell, Cambridge, pp. 241-290.
Shoven, J.B. and Whalley, J. (1984), “Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 22, Issue 3, pp. 1007-1051.
Transparency International (2005), Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2005, Transparency International, Berlin, available at <http://www.transparency.org/cpi/2005/dnld/media_pack_en.pdf> accessed on 30 November 2005.
UNCTAD (2005), World Investment Report 2005, UNCTAD, Geneva, available online at <http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/wir2005_en.pdf> viewed 1 December 2005.
UNCTAD (2000), An Investment Guide to Bangladesh: Opportunities and Conditions, UNCTAD/ITE/IIT/Misc.29, Internet Edition, UNCTAD, Geneva, August 2000, available <http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/poiteiitm29.en.pdf> accessed on 30 November 2005.
UNPAN (United Nations Online Network in Public Administration and Finance) (2005), Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2004, UNPAN, New York, at <http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN019089.pdf> accessed on 30 November 2005.
World Bank (1999), Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh: Issues of Long-run Sustainability, World Bank, Washington D.C., available at <http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/02/03/000094946_00011505355643/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf> accessed on 30 November 2005.
World Economic Forum (2005), Global Competitiveness Report 2005-2006, World Economic Forum, Geneva, available at <www.weforum.org/gcr> accessed on 1 December 2005.