Pfau, Wade Donald (2006): Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach. Published in: Korean Economic Review , Vol. 22, No. 2 : pp. 233-247.
Download (281Kb) | Preview
Demographic and economic characteristics have been shown to provide important predictive power for determining a country’s success in the Olympic Games. This paper extends such research, providing a set of predictions for the gold medals and total medals each country will win at the 2006 Winter Olympics. We expected Germany to win the most medals, followed by the United States, Norway, Italy, Austria, and Canada. For total medals, the overall correlation between the predictions and the actual results was 0.934. While Germany and the United States did finish in the top two places, there were some surprises as Canada, Austria, and Russia performed better than expected, while Norway and Italy did not live up to expectations.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach|
|Keywords:||olympics, medals, predictions, econometrics, winter|
|Subjects:||L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
|Depositing User:||Wade D. Pfau|
|Date Deposited:||08. Dec 2009 07:03|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 23:42|
Ball, Donald W. “Olympic Games Competition: Structural Correlates of National Success.” International Journal of Comparative Sociology Vol. 12 (1972): 186-200.
Bernard, Andrew B., and Meghan R. Busse. “Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals.” Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 86, No. 1 (February 2004): 413-417.
International Olympic Committee. Official Report of the Games. Lausanne, Switzerland: International Olympic Committee, Various Years.
Grimes, A. Ray, William J. Kelly, and Paul H. Rubin. “A Socioeconomic Model of National Olympic Performance.” Social Science Quarterly Vol. 55 (1974): 777-782.
Gueorguiev, N. La Participation nationale aux Jeux Olympiques d’hiver 1924-1998. 1998.
Johnson, Daniel K. N., and Ayfer Ali. “A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games.” Social Science Quarterly Vol. 85, No. 4 (December 2004): 974-993.
Kuper, Gerard, and Elmer Sterken. “The Olympic Winter Games: Participation and Performance.” University of Groningen, mimeo, December 2001.
Levine, Ned. “Why Do Countries Win Olympic Medals? Some Structural Correlates of Olympic Games Success: 1972.” Sociology and Social Research Vol. 58 (1974): 353-360.
Lyberg, Wolf. The Book of Facts on the Olympic Winter Games, 1908-1994. 1994.
Wallechinsky, David. The Complete Book of the Winter Olympics: Salt Lake City 2002 Edition. Woodstock, NY: The Overlook Press, 2001.
World Bank. World Development Indicators 2004 CD-ROM. April 2004.