van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Osorio Rodarte, Israel and Burns, Andrew and Baffes, John (2009): How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook.
Download (2822Kb) | Preview
The recent commodity boom was the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Although most prices have declined sharply since their mid-2008 peak, they are still considerably higher than 2003, the beginning of the boom. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous other factors including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion in many countries, and, perhaps, investment fund activity. On the other hand, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, adverse weather conditions, global stock declines to historical lows and government policies, including export bans and prohibitive taxes, accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. This paper concludes that the increased link between energy and non-energy commodity prices, strong demand by developing countries - when the current economic downturn reverses course - and changing weather patterns will be the dominant forces that are likely to shape developments in commodity markets.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook|
|Keywords:||commodity prices; long-term prospects; global economy|
|Subjects:||R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R13 - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||Israel Osorio Rodarte|
|Date Deposited:||07. Dec 2009 03:08|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 23:36|
Armington, Paul (1969). “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 16, pp. 159-178.
Baffes, John (2009). “More on the Energy/non-Energy Commodity Price Link.” Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming.
Baffes, John (2007). “Oil Spills on other Commodities.” Resources Policy, vol. 32, pp. 126-134.
Borensztein, Eduardo and Carmen M. Reinhart (1984). “The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices.“ IMF Staff Papers, vol. 41, pp. 236-261.
Büyüksahin, Bahattin, Michael S. Haigh, and Michel A. Robe (2008). “Commodities and Equities: ‘A Market of One’?” U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Washington, D.C.
Bussolo, Maurizio, de Hoyos, Rafael, Medveded, Denis, and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique (2007). “Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, Washington, D.C.
Bussolo, Maurizio, de Hoyos, Rafael, and Medvedev, Denis (2008). “Economic Growth and Income Distribution: Linking Macroeconomic Models with Household Survey Data at the Global Level”, Background document for the Global Income Distribution Dynamics Tool, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
CFTC, Commodities Futures Trading Commission (2008). “Interagency Task Force on Commodity Markets Releases Interim Report on Crude Oil.” Washington, D.C., July 22.
Cline, William R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
Coelli, Tim J. and D. S. Prasada Rao (2005). “Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: a Malmquist index analysis of 93 countries, 1980-2000.” Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pp. 115-134.
Deaton, Angus (1999). “Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 13, pp. 23-40.
Dickey, David and Wayne A. Fuller (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Time Series Regressions with Unit Roots.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74, pp. 427-431.
Eckaus, Richard S. (2008). “The Oil Price Is a Speculative Bubarrele.” Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Working Paper 08-007.
FAO (2002). Commodity Market Review 2001-02. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Gilbert, Christopher (2007). “Commodity Speculation and Commodity Investments.” Revised version of the paper presented at the conference, The Globalization of Primary Commodity Markets, Stockholm, October 22-23.
Gilbert, Christopher L. (1989). “The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices.” Economic Journal, vol. 99, pp. 773-783.
Hertel, Thomas W., editor (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Holtham, Gerald H. (1988). “Modeling Commodity Prices in a World Macroeconomic Model.” In International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis, ed. Orhan Guvenen. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Houthakker, Hendrik S. (1975). “Comments and Discussion on ‘The 1972-75 Commodity Boom’ by Richard N. Cooper and Robert Z. Lawrence.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 3, pp. 718-720.
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
Lluch, Constantino (1973). “The Extended Linear Expenditure System,” European Economic Review, Vol. 4, pp. 21-32.
Masters, Michael W. (2008). “Testimony before the Committee of Homeland Security and Government Affairs.” United States Senate, Washington, D.C., May 20.
Nordhaus, William (2008). A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
Ravallion, Martin and Chen, Shaohua (2009). “Weakly Relative Poverty.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 4844, Washington, D.C.
Rimmer, Maureen T. and Alan A. Powell (1996). “An implicitly additive demand system,” Applied Economics, 28, pp. 1613-1622.
Soros, George (2008). “Testimony before the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee Oversight: Hearing on FTC Advanced Rulemaking on Oil Market Manipulation.” Washington, D.C., June 3. <http://www.georgesoros.com/files/SorosFinalTestimony.pdf>
Spraos, John (1980). “The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures.” Economic Journal, vol. 90, pp. 107-128.
Plastina, Alejandro (2008). “Speculation and Cotton Prices.” Cotton: Review of the World Situation, International Cotton Advisory Committee, vol. 61, pp. 8-12.
Radetzki, Marian (2008). A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy. Cambridge University Press, UK.
van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique (2009), “The ENVironmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium (ENVISAGE) Model.” Mimeo, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. Washington D.C.
World Bank (various issues). Commodity price data. Development Prospects Group. Washington D.C.
Wray, Randall L. (2008). “The Commodities Market Bubble: Money Manager Capitalism and the Financialization of Commodities.” Public Policy Brief 96. The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
Available Versions of this Item
- How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook. (deposited 07. Dec 2009 03:08) [Currently Displayed]