Harin, Alexander (2009): Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions.
Download (130Kb) | Preview
The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the dimensions of ruptures can be more than 1/3 of the standard deviation for the standard probability distributions.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions|
|Keywords:||probability, uncertainty, utility, economics, decisions, risk,|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
|Depositing User:||Alexander Harin|
|Date Deposited:||16. Dec 2009 05:36|
|Last Modified:||20. Feb 2013 15:22|
Allais, M. (1953) “Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école Américaine” Econometrica 21, 503-46.
Ellsberg, D. (1961) Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, 643-669.
Harin, А. (2009-2) “Ruptures in the probability scale. Calculation of ruptures’ values” MPRA, 16663. (in Russian)
Harin, А. (2009) “About existance of ruptures in the probability scale. Calculation of ruptures’ values” Ninth International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2009. (in Russian)
Harin, А. (2008) “To development of a general formula of forecasting” Proceedings of the 51-th scientific conference of MIPT – 2008 “Modern problems of fundamental and applied sciences”.
Harin, А. (2007) “Principle of uncertain future, examples of its application in economics, potentials of its applications in theories of complex systems, in set theory, probability theory and logic” Seventh International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2007. (in Russian)
Harin, A. (2005) “A new approach to solve old problems” Game Theory and Information from Economics Working Paper Archive at WUSTL, 0505005.
Karassev, V. (2007) private communication.