Bormotov, Michael (2009): Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication.
Download (502Kb) | Preview
Severe economic fluctuations which had recently hit the entire world economy after relatively prosperous decades despite numerous institutional efforts to control them have recalled an interest to the theory of economic cycles. Historical data on main economic indexes and academic evidence show that recurrent fluctuations in the pace of economic growth are consistent over time. Technological revolutions and worldwide implementation of basic inventions are necessarily accompanied by the processes of creative destruction or “sanitation” of the economy, which cause long term economic cycles which appear to be predictable but practically unavoidable. This paper explores the theoretical background and formulates the basics of the mechanism of economic cycles driven endogenously by modern knowledge based economy. It analyzes definitions of economic cycles, employs the concept of hierarchical economic cycles, studies the links between inventions, innovations and economic cycles, provides a concept of “economic organism” versus “economic mechanism”, gives a definition of “good cycles” versus “bad cycles” and proposes taxonomy of business cycles according to four attributes. This working paper is the first in a range of several papers summarizing the intermediate results of research undertaken by the author in order to reconsider and provide explanations on how modern economy creates cyclical movements.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication.|
|Keywords:||economic cycles; creative distraction; basic technology; innovations; endogenous economic growth.|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
|Depositing User:||Michael Bormotov|
|Date Deposited:||01. Jan 2010 17:33|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 15:22|
Abramovitz, Moses. (1989). "Thinking about growth and other assays on economic growth and welfare". Cambridge University Press.
Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (1992). "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction". Econometrica, 60:323-351.
Alexander, Michael A. (2002). "Generations and Business" Cycles. http://www.safehaven.com
Berry, Brian J. L. (1991). "Long-wave rhythms in economic development and political behaviour". The John Hopkins University Press.
Bible in Basic English. (1965). Hooke, S.H. (red.), Cambridge University Press.
Blanchard, O. (2008). "The State of Macro". Working Paper 14259, NBER.
Burns , A. F. and Mitchell, W. C. (1946). "Measuring business cycles". New York, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Burns, A. F. (1951). "Introduction". In: Wesley C. Mitchell. "What happens during business cycles: A progress report". New York, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Dinopoulos, E. and P. Segerstrom (1999). "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages". American Economic Review. 89: 450-472.
Dosi, Giovanni; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Roventini, Andrea, (2008). "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: a policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles". LEM, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, 2008/21.
Forrester, Jay. (1977). "Growth cycles". De Economist 125:525 – 543.
Kondratiev, N. (1923). Questions controversees d’economie mondiale et de crise.
Freeman, Chris and Louca, Francisco. (2001). "As time goes by". From the industrial revolution to the information revolution. Oxford University Press.
Freeman, Chris. (1982). "The Economics of Industrial Innovation". Cambridge: MIT Press, second edition.
Frisch, (1933). "Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics". In Koch, K. (ed.), "Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel", London, Frank Cass, pp. 171-205.
Government of Canada. (2009). www.canadianeconomy.gc.ca
Gali, J. and Gertler, M. (2007). "Macroeconomic Modelling for Monetary Policy Evaluation". Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21: 25-46.
Hayek, F.A. von. (1933). "Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle". London: Jonathan Cape.
Hicks, J. R. (1937). "Mr. Keynes and the “Classics": A Suggested Interpretation". Econometrica, 5:147-159.
Juglar, C. (1889). "Des Crises Commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis, 2nd edition". Paris: Alcan (Reprinted New York:Kelly, 1967).
Kleinknecht, Alfred. (1990). "Schumperian waves of innovations" in Vasko, T and others Red. "Live cycles and long waves". Spriger-Verlag,.
Kondratiev, N (1923)."Questions controversees d’economie mondiale et de crise".
Kuznets, S. (1930). "Equilibrium economics and Business cycles theory". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 44 (3), pp. 381–415.
Langlois, Richard N. (1991). "Schumpeter and the Obsolescence of the Entrepreneur". Working Paper 91-1503. Department of Economics, University of Connecticut. Lee, M. W. (1955) Economic fluctuations. Homewood, IL, Richard D. Irwin.
Louca, F. (2001). "Intriguing Pendula: Founding Metaphors in the Analysis of Economic Fluctuations". Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25: 25-55.
Louca, F. (2007). "The years of high econometrics .A short history of the generation that reinvented economics". USA, Canada, Routledge.
Lucas, Robert E. (1981). "Studies in Business-Cycle Theory". The MIT Press, Cambridge.
McCraw, Thomas K., (2006). "Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction". Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Nelson, R. R. and Winter, S. G. (1982). "An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change". Harvard University Press.
Perez, Carlota. (2004). "The new techno-economic paradigm". Conference "Looking into the future of ICT", Amsterdam.
Romer, P. (1990). "Endogenous Technical Change". Journal of Political Economy, 98: 71-102.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1934). "The Theory of Economic Development". Cambride: Harvard University Press. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1961.)
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1939). "Business Cycles. A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process". New York Toronto London : McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1950). "apitalism, Socialism and Democracy (3rd edition)". London: Allen and Unwin.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1954) "History of Economic Analysis". London, George Allen & Unwin.
Smith, Adam (1776/1937). "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations". (New York, Modern Library).).
Solow, R. M. (1956). "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70: 65-94.
Sombart, Werner (1916/2001). "Economic Life in the Modern Age". Reiner Grundmann, eds. New Brunswick.
Sullivan, Arthur; Sheffrin ,Steven M. (2006). "Economics: Principles in action". Pearson Prentice Hall.
Tylecote, Andrew (1993). "The long wave in the world economy". Routledge.
Verspagen, Bart. (2007). "The Spatial Hierarchy of Technological Change and Economic Development in Europe". UNU-MERIT Working Papers,
Verspagen, Bart. (2004). Innovation and Economic Growth. Oxford Handbook of Innovation. J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery and R. R. Nelson. Oxford.
Wilson, Daniel J. (2003). "Embodying Embodiment in a Structural, Macroeconomic Input-Output Model". Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Woodbury, A.M. (1951). "Natural Philosophy". Sydney, Aquinas Academy.
Woodford, M. (2003). "Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy". Princeton University Press.
Young, John. (1997). "The Natural Economy". London, Shepheard-Walwyn.
Available Versions of this Item
- Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication. (deposited 01. Jan 2010 17:33) [Currently Displayed]