De Leon, Marycruz and Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Kelley, Brian W. (2009): Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic. Published in: International Journal of Transport Economics , Vol. 36, No. 2 (June 2009): pp. 223-259.
Download (228Kb) | Preview
Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic|
|Keywords:||Bridge Traffic, Tolls, Applied Econometrics, Mexico Border|
|Subjects:||R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Systems > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise|
|Depositing User:||Thomas Fullerton|
|Date Deposited:||08. Jan 2010 18:35|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 10:13|
Armelius, H. “An Integrated Approach to Urban Road Pricing.” Journal of Transport Economics & Policy, 39, 2005, 75-92.
Ashley, R., C.W.J. Granger, and R. Schmalensee. “Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality.” Econometrica, 48, 1980, 1149-1167.
Bonsall, P., J. Shires, J. Maule, B. Matthews, and J. Beale, “Responses to Complex Pricing Signals: Theory, Evidence, and Implications for Road Pricing,” Transportation Research A 41, 2007, 672-683.
Braid, R.M. “Peak-Load Pricing of a Transportation Route with an Unpriced Substitute.” Journal of Urban Economics 40, 1996, 179-197.
Brownstone, D., A. Ghosh, T.F. Golob, C. Kazimi, and D. Van Amelsfort. “Drivers’ Willingness-to-Pay to Reduce Travel Time: Evidence from the San Diego I-15 Congestion Pricing Project.” Transportation Research A, 37, 2003, 373-387.
Burris, M.W. “Incorporating Variable Toll Rates in Transportation Planning Models.” International Journal of Transport Economics 33, 2006, 351-368.
Chang, S. “Municipal Revenue Forecasting.” Growth and Change, 10, 1979, 38-46.
Crowder, D. “Mobility Authority Established.” El Paso Times, 14 March 2007, B1.
Diebold, F.X., and R.S. Mariano. “Comparing Predictive Accuracy.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 1995, 253-263.
Federal Highway Administration. “Toll Facilities in the United States.” Publication FHWA-PL-99-011. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999.
Ferrari, P. “Road Network Toll Pricing and Social Welfare.” Transportation Research B, 36, 2002, 471-483.
Forrester, J.P., “Budgetary Constraints and Municipal Revenue Forecasting.” Policy Sciences, 24, 1991, 333-356.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr. “Currency Movements and International Border Crossings.” International Journal of Public Administration, 23, 2000, 1113-1123.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr. “Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model.” International Regional Science Review, 24, 2001, 245-260.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr. “Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy.” Journal of Transportation & Statistics, 7, 2004, 7-21.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., and R. Tinajero. “Cross Border Business Cargo Vehicle Flows.” International Journal of Transport Economics, 29, 2002, 201-2132.
Geltner, D., and F. Moavenzadeh. “An Economic Argument for Privatization of Highway Ownership.” Transportation Research Record, 1107, 1987, 14-20.
Graham, D.J., and S. Glaister. “Road Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimates: A Review.” Transport Reviews, 24, 2004, 261-274.
Hirschman, I., C. McKnight, J. Pucher, R.E. Paaswell, and J. Berechman. “Bridge and Tunnel Toll Elasticities in New York.” Transportation, 22, 1995, 97-113.
Hoogendoorn, S.P., and P.H.L. Bovy, “Pedestrian Travel Behavior Modeling.” Networks & Spatial Economics, 5, 2005, 193-216.
Lave, C. “The Demand Curve under Road Pricing and the Problem of Political Feasibility.” Transportation Research A, 28, 1994, 83-91.
Leamer, E.E. “Let’s take the Con out of Econometrics.” American Economic Review, 1983, 73, 31-43.
Loo, B.P.Y. “Tunnel Traffic and Toll Elasticities in Hong Kong: Some Recent Evidence for International Comparisons.” Environment & Planning A, 35, 2003, 249-276.
Matas, A., and J.L. Raymond. “Demand Elasticity on Tolled Motorways.” Journal of Transportation & Statistics, 6, 2003, 91-108.
McCloskey, D.N., and S.T. Ziliak. “The Standard Error of Regressions.” Journal of Economic Literature, 1996, 34, 97-114.
Minasian, J. “Indivisibility, Decreasing Cost, and Excess Capacity: The Bridge.” Journal of Law & Economics, 22, 1979, 385-397.
Muriello, M.F., and D. Jiji. “Value Pricing Toll Program at Port Authority of New York and New Jersey – Revenue Management for Transportation Investment and Incentives for Traffic Management,” Transportation Research Record 1864, 2004, 9-15.
Newlon, H. “Private Sector Involvement in Virginia’s Nineteenth-Century Transportation Improvement Program” Transportation Research Record 1107, 1987, 3-13.
Olszewski, P., and L.T. Xie. “Modelling the Effects of Road Pricing on Traffic in Singapore.” Transportation Research A, 39, 2005, 755-772.
Oum, T.H., W.G. Waters, and J.S. Yong. “Concepts of Price Elasticities of Transport Demand and Recent Empirical Estimates – An Interpretative Survey.” Journal of Transport Economics & Policy, 26, 1992, 139-154.
Pindyck, R.S., and D.L. Rubinfeld, D. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. 4th Edition. New York, NY: Irwin McGraw-Hill, 1998.
Podgorski, K.V., and K.M. Kockelman. “Public Perceptions of Toll Roads: A Survey of the Texas Perspective.” Transportation Research A, 40, 2006, 888-902.
Raux, C., and S. Souche. “The Acceptability of Urban Road Pricing.” Journal of Transport Economics & Policy, 38, 2004, 191-215.
Verhoef, E., P. Nijkamp, and P. Rietveld, “Second-Best Congestion Pricing: The Case of an Untolled Alternative.” Journal of Urban Economics, 40, 1996, 279-302.
Villegas, H., P.L. Gurian, J.M. Heyman, A. Mata, R. Falcone, E. Ostapowicz, S. Wilrigs, M. Petragnani, and E. Eisele. “Trade-offs between Security and Inspection Capacity – Policy Options for Land Border Ports of Entry.” Transportation Research Record 1942, 2006, 16-22.
Wei, W. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley, 1990.
Wuestefeld, N.H., and E.J. Regan. “Impact of Rate Increases on Toll Facilities.” Traffic Quarterly, 35, 1981, 639-655.
Yang, H., and M.G.H. Bell. “Traffic Restraint, Road Pricing, and Network Equilibrium.” Transportation Research B, 31, 1997, 303-314.
Yildirim, M.B., and D.H. Hearn. “A First Best Toll Pricing Framework for Variable Demand Traffic Assignment Problems.” Transportation Research B, 39, 2005, 659-675.