Fischer, Stanley and Sahay, Ratna and Vegh, Carlos (1998): From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects.
Download (1MB) | Preview
This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992-95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential ofthe transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects|
|Keywords:||Transition, growth, Eastern Europe, output, inflation|
|Subjects:||P - Economic Systems > P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies > P20 - General
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
|Depositing User:||Carlos Vegh|
|Date Deposited:||11. Feb 2010 02:04|
|Last Modified:||01. Aug 2015 09:38|
Aslund, Anders, Peter Boone, and Simon Johnson, 1996, "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post-Communist Countries," prepared for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, March 28-29.
Barro, Robert J., 1991, "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, pp. 407-43.
Barro, Robert J., and Jong-Wha Lee, 1993, "International Comparisons for Educational Attainment," Journal ofMonetary Economics, Vol. 32, pp. 363-394.
Cheasty, Adrienne, and Jeffrey Davis, 1996, "Fiscal Transition in Countries ofthe Former Soviet Union: An Interim Assessment," unpublished (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
De Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, and Alan Gelb, 1996, "From Plan to Market: Patterns of Transition" unpublished (Washington: The World Bank).
Easterly, William, "When is Stabilization Expansionary?," 1995, unpublished, forthcoming in Economic Policy (Washington: The World Bank).
Easterly, William, and Stanley Fischer, March 1994, "The Soviet Economic Decline: Historical and Republican Data," unpublished (Washington: The World Bank).
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, October 1994, Transition Report (London: EBRD).
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, April 1995, Transition Report Update, (London: EBRD).
Fischer, Stanley, "The Role ofMacroeconomic Factors in Growth," 1993, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, pp. 485-512.
Fischer, Stanley, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Vegh, 1996a, "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience", Journal ofEconomic Perspectives, Vol. 10 (Spring), pp. 45-66.
Fischer, Stanley, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Vegh, 1996b, "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 86, pp. 229-233.
Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman, 1991, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press).
Haque, Nadeem VI, and Ratna Sahay, 1996, "Do Government Wage Cuts Close Budget Deficits?-A Conceptual Framework for Developing Countries and Transition Economies," IMF Working Paper 96/19, forthcoming in IMF StaffPapers (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Hansson, Ardo, and Jeffrey Sachs, 1994, "Monetary Institutions and Credible Stabilization: A Comparison ofExperience in the Baltics," unpublished (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University).
Kaufinann, Daniel and Aleksander Kaliberda, 1995, "Integrating the Unofficial Economy into the Dynamics ofPost-Socialist Economies: A Framework of Analysis and Evidence," unpublished (Kyiv: The World Bank Kyiv office).
Krajnyak, Kornelia and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1996, "Competitiveness in Transition Economies, unpublished (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Levine, Ross and David Renelt, 1992, "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions", American Economic Review, Vol. 82, pp. 942-63.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, January 1996, Short-term Economic Indicators: Transition Economies, Centre for Co-operation with the Economies in Transition.
Ram, Rati, "Wagner's Hypothesis in Time Series and Cross-Section Perspectives: Evidence from 'Real' Data for 155 Countries," 1986, Review ofEconomics and Statistics, pp. 194-204.
Rebelo, Sergio, and Carlos A. Vegh, 1995, "Real Effects ofExchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp.125-174.
Romer, Paul M., 1990, "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal ofPolitical Economy, Vol. 98, pp. S71-S102.
Sachs, Jeffrey, May 1996, "It Could Have Been So Much Better", Moscow Times.
Sahay, Ratna, and Carlos A. Vegh, 1996, "Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: An Analytical Interpretation of the Evidence," Journal ofPolicy Reform, Vol. 1 , pp. 75-108.
The World Bank, 1996, The World Bank Atlas.