Fingleton, Bernard (2010): Predicting the Geography of House Prices.
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Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate short term ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Predicting the Geography of House Prices|
|Keywords:||new economic geography, real estate prices, spatial econometrics, panel data, prediction.|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables > C31 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
|Depositing User:||Bernard Fingleton|
|Date Deposited:||06. Mar 2010 04:17|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2014 21:08|
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