Predicting the Geography of House Prices

Fingleton, Bernard (2010): Predicting the Geography of House Prices. Unpublished.

Abstract

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate short term ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: new economic geography, real estate prices, spatial econometrics, panel data, prediction.
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses; R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C31 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R3 - Production Analysis and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

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