Melecky, Martin (2010): Choosing the Currency Structure of Foreign-currency Debt: a Review of Policy Approaches.
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Starting from the constraints and incentives that cause countries to issue debt in foreign currency, this paper provides an overview of policy approaches for choosing the optimal currency structure of sovereign foreign-currency debt. The objective of sovereign debt managers generally includes both risk and cost minimization, while constraints to foreign-currency debt allocation originate in the parameters of the domestic macroeconomy, the shocks it faces, and the initial conditions. Overall, the main parameters that drive the solutions for optimal currency allocation of foreign-currency debt are the covariances of macrovariables with exchange rates and the variances of different exchange rates. Both the covariances and the exchange rate volatility can be deceptive when a fixed exchange rate regime is maintained, however. To adequately capture the expected covariances in the context of managed exchange rate regimes, we suggest that sovereign debt managers work with equilibrium instead of actual exchange rates. For the same reason and because the estimates of relative exchange rate variances should be forward looking, we suggest using synchronization indicators in the policy analysis to better capture the underlying drivers of exchange rate volatility across currencies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Choosing the Currency Structure of Foreign-currency Debt: a Review of Policy Approaches|
|Keywords:||Sovereign Debt Management, Foreign-Currency Debt, Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Volatility, External Shocks, Developing Countries.|
|Subjects:||G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
|Depositing User:||Martin Melecky|
|Date Deposited:||18. Mar 2010 23:49|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 00:42|
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