Mapa, Dennis S. (2003): A Range-Based GARCH Model for Forecasting Volatility. Published in: The Philippine Review of Economics , Vol. XL, No. 2 (December 2003): pp. 73-90.
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A new variant of the ARCH class of models for forecasting the conditional variance, to be called the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Parkinson Range (GARCH-PARK-R) Model, is proposed. The GARCH-PARK-R model, utilizing the extreme values, is a good alternative to the Realized Volatility that requires a large amount of intra-daily data, which remain relatively costly and are not readily available. The estimates of the GARCH-PARK-R model are derived using the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE). The results suggest that the GARCH-PARK-R model is a good middle ground between intra-daily models, such as the Realized Volatility and inter-daily models, such as the ARCH class. The forecasting performance of the models is evaluated using the daily Philippine Peso-U.S. Dollar exchange rate from January 1997 to December 2003.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A Range-Based GARCH Model for Forecasting Volatility|
|Keywords:||Volatility, Parkinson Range, GARCH-PARK-R, QMLE|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics
|Depositing User:||Dennis S. Mapa|
|Date Deposited:||12. Mar 2010 14:25|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 22:13|
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