Kitov, Ivan (2010): Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts.
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Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, the pricing concept is valid. For several companies, share prices are defined only by CPI readings in the past. Therefore, our empirical pricing model is a deterministic one. For a few companies, including Lehman Brothers, AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, negative share prices could be foreseen in May-September 2008. One might interpret the negative share prices as a sign of approaching bankruptcies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts|
|English Title:||Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts|
|Keywords:||share price, modeling, CPI, prediction, the USA, bankruptcy|
|Subjects:||G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets
G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services
G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates
|Depositing User:||Ivan Kitov|
|Date Deposited:||14. Mar 2010 21:05|
|Last Modified:||20. Feb 2013 01:52|
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Kitov, I., Kitov, O. (2008). Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. III(2(4)_Summ), pp. 101-112.
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Kitov, I., Kitov, O. (2009b). A fair price for motor fuel in the United States, MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.