Kitchen, John (2003): Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections. Published in: National Tax Journal , Vol. LVI, No. 2 (July 2003): pp. 337-353.
Download (87kB) | Preview
This paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections|
|Keywords:||Tax receipts; forecasts; budget|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt|
|Depositing User:||John Kitchen|
|Date Deposited:||11. Apr 2010 00:10|
|Last Modified:||17. Feb 2013 18:56|
Auerbach, Alan J., “On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts,” National Tax Journal, 52 No. 4 (December 1999): 767-782.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, “State Per Capita Personal Income and State Personal Income, 2001,” Survey of Current Business, (May 2002): 34-59.
Calomiris, Charles W. and Kevin A. Hassett, “Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate,” NationalTax Journal, 55 (March 2002): 119-131.
Campbell, Bryan and Eric Ghysels, “Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 77 No. 1 (February 1995): 17-31.
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, various issues.
Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals, various issues.
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, various issues.
Congressional Budget Office, “Uncertainties in Projecting Budget Surpluses: A Discussion of Data and Methods,” A Supplement to The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012, (February 2002).
Congressional Budget Office, “Where Did the Revenues Go?” Revenue and Tax Policy Brief, August 13, 2002. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President, various issues.
Diebold, Francis X. and Jose A. Lopez, “Forecast Evaluation and Combination,” NBER Working Paper No.t0192, March 1996. Published in Handbook of Statistics 14: Statistical Methods in Finance, edited by G.S. Maddala and C.R. Rao. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1996.
Donihue, Michael and John Kitchen, "The Troika Process: Economic Forecasts and Macroeconomic Policy in the USA" in Empirical Models and Policy Making: Interaction and Institutions, edited by F. A. G. den Butter and M. S. Morgan. London: Routledge, 2000.
Kasten, Richard A., David J. Wiener, and G. Thomas Woodward, “What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?” National Tax Journal, 52 No. 3 (September 1999): 339-348.
Mauskopf, Eileen and Dave Reifschneider, “Dynamic Scoring, Fiscal Policy, and the Short-Run Behavior of the Macroeconomy,” National Tax Journal, 50 No. 3 (September 1997): 631-55.
Office of Management and Budget, Analytical Perspectives,Budget of the U.S. Government, various issues.
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government, various issues.
Office of Management and Budget, Mid-Session Review of the Budget, various issues.