Mezgebo, Taddese (2009): A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price.
This is the latest version of this item.
Download (343kB) | Preview
Based on vector error correction model, persistence profile and common trend estimation, optimal locations, that can be used to stabilize Ethiopian grain market, in general, and wheat market, in particular, are identified. Most of the Ethiopian wheat markets are observed to follow one common trend. This single common trend is mainly determined by producer centers and one deficit market of Jimma. Methodologically the grid search methodology proposed by early authors, in search of one price system, is given both theoretical and empirical justification, in this paper, from institutional economics point of view.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price|
|Keywords:||Inflation cointegration ethiopia food price grain market|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
D - Microeconomics > D4 - Market Structure and Pricing
P - Economic Systems > P4 - Other Economic Systems > P44 - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
|Depositing User:||Taddese Mezgebo|
|Date Deposited:||13. Apr 2010 13:59|
|Last Modified:||17. Feb 2013 07:37|
Başçi, Sıdıka and Asad Zaman (1998) ‘Effects of skewness and kurtosis on model selection criteria’ Economics Letters, 59, 17–22
Bollerslev, T. (19860) ‘Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity’, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
Breusch, T S, (1978) "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, 17, 334-55
Brüggermann, Ralf, Helmut Lütkepohl and Pentti Saikkonen (2006) ‘Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models’ Journal of Econometrics 134, 579–604
Cavaliere et al (2009) ‘Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity’ CREATES Research Paper, 22
Chao, John C. and Peter C. B. Phillips (1999) ‘model selection in partially none stationery vector autoregressive process with reduced rank structure’, Journal of Econometrics, 91, 227-271
Demiroglu, Ufuk (2000) ‘Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Auto regressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence’ Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, January (2000)
Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431
Eleni Z. Gabre-Madhin (2001) ‘Market Institutions, Transaction Costs, and Social Capital in the Ethiopian Grain Market’, IFPRI research report, 124
Eleni Z. Gabre-Madhin, Wolday Amha, Ethiopis Tafara, John Schluter, Tilahun Teshome and Getinet Kilkile (2003) ‘Getting Markets Right in Ethiopia: An Institutional and Legal Analysis of Grain and Coffee Marketing’ IFPRI Final study report
Engle, R. (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1008.
Engle, Robert F and C. W. J. Granger (1987) ‘Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing’, Econometrica, 55, 251-276
Gebremeskel Dessalegn, T.S. Jayne and J.D. Shaffer (1998) ‘Market structure, conduct and performance: constraints in performance of Ethiopian grain markets’ Grain Market Research Project working paper, 8
Godfrey, Leslie G, (1978) "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, 46, 1303-10
Gonzalo, Jesus and Clive Granger (1995) ‘Estimation of common long memory components in cointegrated systems’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistitics, 13, 27-33
Gonzalo, Jesus and Jean-Yves Pitarakis (2000) ‘Lag Length Estimation in Large Dimensional Systems’ EconWPA, 0108003
Gonz´alez-Rivera, Gloria and Steven M. Helfand (2001) ‘The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market’ American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83, 576–592
Gutiérrez, C. E. Carrasco, Reindldo C. Souza and Osmani T. de Carvalho Guillén (2007) ‘Selection of optimal lag length in cointegrated VAR models with weak form of common cyclical features’ Brazil central bank working paper series, 139
Hamilton, James D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New jersey
Ho, M.S. and B.E. Sorensen (1996) ‘Finding cointegrating rank in high dimensional systems using the Johansen test: an illustration using data based Monte Carlo simulations.’ Review of Economics and Statistics 78: 4, 726–732.
IMF (2008) ‘The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues’ IMF Country Report, 08/259
Jarque, Carlos M.; Anil K. Bera (1980) "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals". Economics Letters, 6, 255–259
Jarque, Carlos M.; Anil K. Bera (1981) "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals: Monte Carlo evidence". Economics Letters, 7, 313–318
Jayne T.S. and Daniel Molla (1995) ‘Toward a research agenda to promote household access to food in Ethiopia’ Food security research project working paper, 2
Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254.
Johansen, S. (1991) “estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models’ Econometrica, 59, 1551-80
Johansen, S. (1992) “Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of linear trend”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 383 - 97
Khim, Venus and Sen Liew (2004) ‘Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?’ Economics Bulletin, 3, 1−9
Lee, Tae -Hwy and Yiuman Tse (1996) ‘Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity’ Journal of Econometrics, 73, 401-410
Loening, Josef L., Dick Durevall and Yohannes A. Birru (2009) ‘Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia’ World bank Policy Research Working Paper, 4969
Ng, Serena and Pierre Perron (2001) ‘Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tetes with good size and power’ Econometrica, 69, 1519–1554
Pesaran, M. Hashem and Yongcheol Shin (1996) ‘Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium’, Journal of Econometrics, 71, 117- 143
Peterson, Kerry (2000) An Introduction to Applied Econometrics: Time Series Approach, Palgrave Macmillan – New York
Rashid, Shahidur (2004) ‘spatial integration of maize markets in post-liberalized Uganda’, Journal of African Economies, 13, 102-133
Ravallion, M. (1986) ‘Testing market integration’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68, 102 –109
Sadoulet, Elisabeth and Alain de Janvry (1995) Quantitative Development Policy Analysis, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London
Taddese Mezgebo (2009) “A Multivariate Approach for Identification of Optimal Locations with in Ethiopia's Wheat Market to Tackle Soaring Inflation on Food Price (Extended Version)”, University Library of Munich Germany, MPRA Paper, 17960
Ulimwengu, John M., Sindu Workneh and Zelekawork Paulos (2009) ‘Impact of Soaring Food Price in Ethiopia: Does Location Matter?’ IFPRI Discussion Paper, 00846
Winker, Peter and Dietmar Maringer (2004) ‘Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC Models’ Computing in Economics and Finance, 155
Wolday Amha, Julie Stepanek, T.S. Jayne and Asfaw Negassa (1997), ‘Meeting food aid and price stabilization objectives through local grain purchase: a review of the 1996 experience.’ Grain market research project working paper, 7
World Bank (2008/9) Africa development Indicators, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, Washington, D.C.- U.S.A.
Available Versions of this Item
A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price. (deposited 16. Nov 2009 15:18)
- A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price. (deposited 13. Apr 2010 13:59) [Currently Displayed]