Siddig, Khalid (2010): Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan.Full text not available from this repository.
The latest episode of the armed conflict between Northern and Southern Sudan erupted in 1983 and ended with the signing of the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)" in 2005. The CPA allows for a referendum on independence for South Sudan in 2011. A similar scenario is possible for Darfur, where an armed conflict broke out in 2003 over demands for greater decentralization and development in the region. The peace agreement between the central government and the Eastern Sudan region continues to be fragile and the risk of escalation of across the border spillovers of conflicts with Uganda and Chad persists. The U.S., EU, among other global players, is putting pressure on the Khartoum government to change its policies. Economic sanctions are among the tools used by the U.S. government while encouraging others follow suit. This paper investigates the response of the Sudanese economy to eliminating trade flows with the EU in the first phase and with East-Asian countries in the second. It discusses the changes in the macro-indicators, trade variables, and welfare measures that would result. Moreover, it assesses the potential trade diversion and resource reallocation due to sanctions in each phase. To simulate these scenarios, detailed economic databases for Sudan, EU, East-Asian region, MENA, COMESA, and the rest of the world are needed. For this purpose, GTAP Africa database and the standard GTAP model are employed. The 57 sectors of Africa database are aggregated to ten sectors including: grains and crops, livestock and meat products, mining and extraction, processed food, textiles and clothing, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, utilities and construction, transport and communication, and other services. Moreover, the database regions are aggregated to six including Sudan, the EU, East Asia, MENA, COMESA, and the Rest of the world. Results show that Sudanese trade reallocates to Asia in the first phase and to COMESA and MENA regions in the second. Sanctions exact a devastating toll on the Sudanese economy: GDP declines, trade shrinks, and welfare deteriorates. The deterioration in the country’s trade is mainly in the imports side, which justifies an improvement of the country’s balance of trade, while welfare losses are derived by a deteriorated terms of trade and allocative efficiency.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan|
|English Title:||Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan|
|Keywords:||Sudan, sanctions, GTAP Africa database, EU, East Asia|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods
D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
|Depositing User:||Khalid Siddig|
|Date Deposited:||14. Apr 2010 00:47|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 11:14|
Adhana Tekle, Kelali. 2006. “Impact of FTA within Eastern and Southern Africa Countries and Unilateral Tariff Elimination by other Regions.” http://www.acp-eu-trade.org/library/files/Adhana_EN_0606_Impacts-of-FTA-on-Trade-and-Poverty-within-EA-and0with0EU.pdf. Accessed on 01 July 2009.
Allen, S. H. 2008. “The Domestic Political Costs of Economic Sanctions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, volume 52 Number 6. December 2008 916-944, 2008 Sage Publications. 10.1177/0022002708325044.
Brokmeier, Martina. 2001. “A Graphical Exposition of the GTAP Model.” GTAP Technical Paper No. 8.
DOT. 2009. “Direction of Trade Statistics” The online trade database of the International Monetary Fund. http://www.imfstatistics.org/DOT/. Accessed on 01 June 2009.
CBOS. 2007. “Central bank of Sudan Annual Reports”. The 47th Annual Report. http://www.cbos.gov.sd/english/Periodicals/annual/annual07.pdf. Accessed on 01 June 2009.
CBS. 2009. “Fifth Sudan Population and Housing Census – 2008, Priority Results” Central Bureau of Statistic, Sudan. http://www.cbs.gov.sd/. Accessed on 01 July 2009.
EC. 2009. “EU Relations with Sudan. Development and relations with African, Caribbean and pacific states” http://ec.europa.eu/development/geographical/regionscountries/countries/country_profile.cfm?cid=sd&lng=en&CFID=2985577&CFTOKEN=46383656&jsessionid=08068e7803d05887d5f9. Accessed on 09 June 2009.
EC. 2009a. “Overview of ACP-EC-Partnership Agreement (The Cotonou Agreement)”. http://ec.europa.eu/development/geographical/cotonouintro_en.cfm. Accessed on 29 June 2009.
Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R. 1996. “Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK” Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127.
Hertel, T.W. 1997. “Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications” Cambridge University Press, 1997. ICCO .2009. “Sudan's future threatened by cut in EU-funds. Interchurch Organization for Development Co-operation (ICCO)” http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/ADGO-7TCSCX?OpenDocument Accessed on 29 June 2009.
Francesch, M. C., Albert, C. Boada, Vicenç Fisas Armengol, Patricia García Amado, Maria Prandi Chevalier, Gema Redondo de la Morena, Josep Maria Royo Aspa, Eneko Sanz Pascual, Núria Tomàs Collantes, Jordi Urgell García, Ana Villellas Ariño, and María Villellas Ariño. 2009. “Report on conflicts, human rights, and peace building” Edited by: Icaria Editorial / Escola de Cultura de Pau (School for a Culture of peace), Autonomous University of Barcelona Printed by: Industria Gráfica Frape. Insight on conflict. 2009. “The Sudan country profile in insight on conflict” http://www.insightonconflict.org/sudan?gclid=CLXNmIPPk5sCFYuB3god6lvwpA. Accessed June 18.2009.
Moreno-Ocampo, Luis. 2009. “The state of human rights in Europe: the need to eradicate impunity” Committee on legal affairs and human rights of the parliamentary assembly of the council of Europe, in cooperation with the German Budestag’s committee on human rights and humanitarian aid. Berlin 23 march 2009. http://assembly.coe.int/Documents/WorkingDocs/Doc09/EDOC11934.pdf Accessed on 1 June 2009.
Siddig, Khalid. 2009. “From bilateral trade to multilateral pressure: a scenario in the EU relation with Sudan”. World Institute for Development Economic Research (WIDER) United Nation University, Finland. Submitted to the Middle East Development Journal.
Siddig, Khalid. 2009a. “GTAP Africa Data Base Documentation - Chapter 2 Input-Output Table: Sudan” https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/access_member/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=2986. Accessed on 01 July 2009.
Siddig, Khalid. 2009b. “Macroeconomy and Agriculture in Sudan: Analysis of Trade Policies, External Shocks, and Economic Bans in a Computable General Equilibrium Approach. Farming & Rural Systems Economics. Volume 108, ISBN: 978-3-8236-1578-1, ISSN: 1616-9808.
Stephen Karingi, Rémi Lang, Nassim Oulmane, Romain Perez, Mustapha Sadni and Victor Mosoti. 2004. “The legal implications of Sudan's accession to the World Trade Organization” Journal of African Affairs, 103:269-282 (2004).
USDT. 2009. “Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Sanctions with Respect To Sudan” U.S. Department of the Treasury. Report to Congress January 2009. http://www.treas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/sudan/sudan_report_030509.pdf. Accessed on 24 June 2009.
WDI. 2009. “World Development Indicators. Development Data & Statistics” The World Bank. Institutional subscribers to WDI Online, http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=6 Accessed on 01 June 2009.