Cadogan, Godfrey (2010): Commutative Prospect Theory and Stopped Behavioral Processes for Fair Gambles.
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We augment Tversky and Khaneman (1992) (“TK92”) Cumulative Prospect Theory (“CPT”) function space with a sample space for “states of nature”, and depict a commutative map of behavior on the augmented space. In particular, we use a homotopy lifting property to mimic behavioral stochastic processes arising from deformation of stochastic choice into outcome. A psychological distance metric (in the class of Dudley-Talagrand inequalities) for stochastic learning, was used to characterize stopping times for behavioral processes. In which case, for a class of nonseparable space-time probability density functions, we find that behavioral processes are uniformly stopped before the goal of fair gamble is attained. Further, we find that when faced with a fair gamble, agents exhibit submartingale [supermartingale] behavior, subjectively, under CPT probability weighting scheme. We show that even when agents’ have classic von Neuman-Morgenstern preferences over probability distribution, and know that the gamble is a martingale, they exhibit probability weighting to compensate for probability leakage arising from the their stopped behavioral process.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Commutative Prospect Theory and Stopped Behavioral Processes for Fair Gambles|
|Keywords:||commutative prospect theory; homotopy; stopping time; behavioral stochastic process|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D70 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods
|Depositing User:||godfrey cadogan|
|Date Deposited:||29. Apr 2010 00:20|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 14:52|
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