Cohen, Joseph N and Linton, April (2010): The historical relationship between inflation and political rebellion, and what it might teach us about neoliberalism.
Download (639kB) | Preview
Chronic inflation is argued to be politically destabilizing. We examine data on inflation and political instability that goes as far back as 500 years. Although the behavior of both prices and political rebellion have changed over these five centuries, and enduring relationship between price and political destabilization appears in our analyses. This relationship may provide insight into the context from which neoliberalism emerged, potential reasons for its failure, and some of the key dilemmas upon which the post-2008 global economic order may hinge
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The historical relationship between inflation and political rebellion, and what it might teach us about neoliberalism|
|Keywords:||inflation; political instability; long-run history;|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions
N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
|Depositing User:||Joseph N. Cohen|
|Date Deposited:||06. May 2010 07:39|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 05:03|
Albanesi, S. (2007). "Inflation and inequality." Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4): 1088-1114.
Allen, R. C. (2001). "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War." Explorations in Economic History 38: 411 - 447.
Allen, R. C. (n.d.). Consumer Price Indices, Nominal / Real Wages and Welfare Ratios of Building Craftsmen and Labourers, 1260 - 1913, http://www.iisg.nl/hpw/data.php.
Arestis, P. and P. Howells (2001). "The 1520-1640 "Great Inflation": An Early Case of Controversy on the Nature of Money." Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 24(2): 181-203.
Åslund, A. (1994). Economic transformation in Russia. New York, St. Martin's Press.
Bank's Cross-National Time Series (2007). Bank's Cross-National Time Series, Distributed by Princeton University Data and Statistical Services.
Barquín Gil, R. (2001). Precios de trige de consume en Espana, 1765 - 1883. Burgos, Universidad de Burgos.
Barsky, R. B. and L. Kilian (2001). "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16(ArticleType: primary_article / Full publication date: 2001 / Copyright © 2001 The University of Chicago Press): 137-183.
Beck, N. (2001). "Time-Series Cross-Section Data: What Have We Learned in the Past Few Years?" Annual Review of Political Science 4: 281- 293.
Bernanke, B. S. (1983). "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression." The American Economic Review 73(3): 257-276.
Bernanke, B. S. (1995). "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27(1): 1 - 28.
Bordo, M. D. and B. Eichengreen (1998). Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System. The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and American Economy in the Twentieth Century. M. D. Bordo, C. D. Goldin and E. N. White. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research: 403 - 454.
Boswell, T., A. Linton, et al. (2007). Revolution and World Society: The Effects of World-Systemic Dynamics on the Patterns of Revolution since 1500. Final Report to the World Society Foundation.
Bruno, M. and W. Easterly (1998). "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth." Journal of Monetary Economics 41: 3 - 26.
Bruton, H. J. (1998). "A Reconsideration of Import Substitution." Journal of Economic Literature 36: 903 - 936.
Bulíř, A. (2001). "Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?" IMF Staff Papers 48(1): 139-159.
Carter, D. B. and C. S. Signorino (2007). Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Rochester, NY, University of Rochester.
CBS Statistics Netherlands (2009). CBS StatLine, http://www.cbs.nl/.
Centeno, M. A. and J. N. Cohen (2010). Global Capitalism: A Sociological Perspective. Malden, MA, Polity Press.
Chase-Dunn, C. K. (1998). Global formation : structures of the world-economy, updated edition. Lanham, Md., Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
Congressional Budget Office (2009). The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020. Washginton, DC, United States Congressional Budget Office.
Easterly, W. and S. Fischer (2001). "Inflation and the Poor." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33(2): 160-178. Economic History Association (n.d.). Global Finance, http://eh.net/databases/finance.
Ehrenberg, R. G., L. Danziger, et al. (1983). "Cost-of-Living Adjustment Clauses in Union Contracts: A Summary of Results." Journal of Labor Economics 1(3): 215-245.
Feldstein, M. (2009). Inflation is looming on America's horizon. The Financial Times.
Fischer, D. H. (1996). The great wave : price revolutions and the rhythm of history. New York, Oxford University Press.
Fischer, D. H. (1999). The great wave : price revolutions and the rhythm of history. New York, Oxford University Press.
Fischer, S., R. Sahay, et al. (2002). "Modern hyper-and high inflations." Journal of Economic Literature 40(3): 837-880.
Fisher, I. (1933). "The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions." Econometrica 1(4): 337 - 357.
Friedman, M. (1977). "Inflation and Unemployment." The Journal of Political Economy 85(3): 451-472.
Friis, A. and K. Glamann (1958). A history of prices and wages in Denmark. London, New York,, Published for the Institute of Economics and History, Copenhagen by Longmans, Green.
Gavin, W. T. (2009). "More Money: Understanding Recent Changes in the Monetary Base." Federal Bank of St. Louis Review 91(2): 49 - 59.
Global Finance Data (2009). Global Finance Data, http://www.globalfinancialdata.com.
Global Price and Income History Group. (n.d.). "Global Price and Income History Group: A research team measuring prices, incomes, and economic wellbeing around the world before 1950."
Goldstone, J. A. (1991). Revolution and rebellion in the early modern world. Berkeley, University of California Press.
Goodhart, C. A. E. (2008). "The Background to the 2007 Financial Crisis." International Economics and Economic Policy 4(4): 331 - 346.
Hayek, F. A. (1945). "The Use of Knowledge in Society." American Economic Review 35(4): 519 - 530.
Hill, L. E., C. E. Butler, et al. (1977). "Inflation and the Destruction of Democracy: The Case of the Weimar Republic." Journal of Economic Issues 11(2): 299-313.
Hogarth, J. M., C. E. Anguelov, et al. (2004). "Why Don't Households Have a Checking Account?" Journal of Consumer Affairs 38: 1 - 34.
Leijonhufvud, A. (2003). Macroeconomic Crises and the Social Order. 8o Jornadas de Economía Monetaria e Internacional. Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988). Economics and elections : the major western democracies. Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press.
Looney, R. E. (1982). Economic origins of the Iranian Revolution. New York, Pergamon Press.
Marshall, M. G. and K. Jaggers (2009). Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800 - 2007, Center for Systemic Peace.
Meltzer, A. H. (2009). Inflation Nation. New York Times. New York, New York Times.
O'Donoghue, J., L. Goulding, et al. (2004). "Consumer Price Inflation since 1750." Economic Trends 604: 38 - 45. Officer, L. H. and S. H. Williamson. (2009). "Annual Inflation Rates in the United States, 1775 - 2008, and the United Kingdom, 1265 - 2008." Measuring Worth.
Olson, M. (1982). The rise and decline of nations : economic growth, stagflation, and social rigidities. New Haven, Yale University Press.
Ozmucur, S. and S. Pamuk (2002). "Real Wages and the Standard of Living in the Ottoman Empire, 1469 - 1914." Journal of Economic History 62(2): 293 - 321.
Paldam, M. (1987). "Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries, 1946 - 1983." Public Choice 52(2): 143 - 168.
Palmer, H. D. and G. D. Whitten (1999). "The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth." British Journal of Political Science 29: 623 - 639.
Parenti, G. (1967). Prezzi e salari a Firenze dal 1520 al 1620. I prezzi in Europa dal XIII secole a oggi. R. Romano. Torino, G. Einaudi.
Polanyi, K. (2001). The great transformation : the political and economic origins of our time. Boston, MA, Beacon Press.
Reinhart, C. M. and K. S. Rogoff (2009). This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
Sachs, J. (1989). Introduction. Developing country debt and the world economy. J. Sachs. Chicago, University of Chicago Press: 1 - 36.
Sarkees, M. R. (2000). "The Correlates of War Data on War: Update to 1997." Conflict Management and Peace Science 18(1): 123 - 144.
Shiller, R. J. (1997). Why Do People Dislike Inflation? Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy. C. D. Romer and D. H. Romer. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research: 13 - 70.
Shiller, R. J. (2003). The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America. Yale ICF Working Paper No. 04-09. New Haven, Yale University.
Simmel, G. (2004). The philosophy of money. London ; New York, Routledge. Singer, J. D. and M. Small (1972). The Wages of War, 1816 - 1965: A Statistical Handbook. New York, John Wiley.
Small, M. and J. D. Singer (1982). Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816 - 1980. Beverly Hills, CA, Sage Publications.
Smith, M. R. (1992). Power, norms, and inflation : a skeptical treatment. New York, A. de Gruyter.
Steensgaard, N. (1997). The Seventeenth Century Crisis. The general crisis of the seventeenth century. G. Parker and L. M. Smith. New York, Routledge: xii, 307 p.
Thompson, W. R. and L. G. Zuk (1982). "War, Inflation, and the Kondratieff Long Wave." Journal of Conflict Resolution 26(4): 621 - 644.
Tilly, C. (1993). European revolutions, 1492-1992. Oxford, UK ; Cambridge, Mass., USA, Blackwell.
Verdier, D. (2002). Moving money : banking and finance in the industrialized world. Cambridge, UK ; New York, Cambridge University Press.
Weber, M. (1978). Economy and society : an outline of interpretive sociology. Berkeley, University of California Press.
World Bank (2009). World Development Indicators, World Bank.