Janczura, Joanna and Weron, Rafal (2010): Modeling electricity spot prices: Regime switching models with price-capped spike distributions. Forthcoming in: MEPS'10 Proceedings
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We calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models to spot (log-)prices from two major power markets. We show that while the price-capped (or truncated) spike distributions do not give any advantage over the standard specification in case of moderately spiky markets (such as NEPOOL), they improve the fit and yield significantly different results in case of extremely spiky markets (such as the Australian NSW market).
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Modeling electricity spot prices: Regime switching models with price-capped spike distributions|
|Keywords:||Electricity spot price; Markov regime-switching model; Price spike; Price cap; Truncated distribution|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C24 - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy
|Depositing User:||Joanna Janczura|
|Date Deposited:||14. Jun 2010 21:29|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 15:58|
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