Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes

Travaglini, Guido (2010): Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes.

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to empirically test for structural breaks of world mean temperatures that may have ignited at some date the phenomenon known as “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. Estimation by means of the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments is conducted on a large dataset spanning the recordable period from 1850 until present, and different tests and selection procedures among competing model specifications are utilized, such as Principal Component and Principal Factor Analysis, instrument validity, overtime changes in parameters and in shares of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. The results of estimation unmistakably show no involvement of anthropogenic forcings and no occurrence of significant breaks in world mean temperatures. Hence the hypothesis of a climate change in the last 150 years, suggested by the advocates of Global Warming, is rejected. Pacific Decadal Oscillations, sunspots and the major volcanic eruptions play the lion’s share in determining world temperatures, the first being a dimmer and the others substantial warmers.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments, Global Warming, Principal Component and Factor Analysis, Structural Breaks.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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