Logo
Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis

Crowley, Patrick and Aaron, Schultz (2010): A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis.

[thumbnail of MPRA_paper_23728.pdf]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_23728.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first study to address this issue using cross-recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here as "intermittency" in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could cause problems in future implementation of euro area monetary policy.

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact us: mpra@ub.uni-muenchen.de

This repository has been built using EPrints software.

MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by Logo of the University Library LMU Munich.