North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach

Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffery P. (2008): North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach.

Abstract

Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board (OSB) markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-a-vis the law of one price. Weekly data, February 3rd, 1995 through October 9th, 2009, are used in the analysis. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets; price parity relationships implied by economic theory are generally supported by the estimated models. Implications for the efficiency of spatial market linkages and the dynamics associated with price adjustments are also examined.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Law of one price, Oriented strand board, Nonlinear model; Time-varying smooth transition autoregression; Transactions costs, Unit root tests
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation > Q23 - Forestry; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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