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An Analysis of the relationship between WTI term structure and oil market fundamentals in 2002-2009

Cavalcante, Mileno (2010): An Analysis of the relationship between WTI term structure and oil market fundamentals in 2002-2009.

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Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the term structure of the WTI futures market between 2002 and 2009, period known by a sustained price rise followed by a price slump and again by a new price rise. To achieve this goal, we use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to decompose WTI futures price series into components which are used to explain series variability (e.g. changes in its term structure). After it, we try to identify how changes in oil markets fundamentals (physical and financial) may have contributed to oil futures term structure variability. The impact of these variables on WTI term structure is assessed using impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. This work is of interest to market analysts, hedgers, and traders, among others, because it helps to clarify how changes in oil markets may affect their strategies in these markets.

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