Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices Using Multi-scale Causality Test in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey

Cifter, Atilla and Ozun, Alper (2007): Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices Using Multi-scale Causality Test in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_2485.pdf

Download (799Kb) | Preview

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of changes in interest rates on stock returns by using wavelet analysis with Granger causality test. Financial time series in non-coherent markets should be analyzed by advanced methods capturing complexity of the markets and non-linearities in stock returns. As a semi-parametric method, wavelets analysis might be superior to detect the chaotic patterns in the non-coherent markets. By using daily closing values of the ISE 100 Index and compounded interest rates, it is proven that and starting with 9 days time-scale effect interest rate is granger cause of ISE 100 index and the effects of interest rates on stock return increases with higher time-scales. This evidence shows that bond market has significant long-term effect on stock market for Turkey and traders should consider long-term money markets changes as well as short-term changes.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.