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Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall

Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2010): Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall.

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Abstract

In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we summarize some of the main findings of that paper, including that economic growth is notably slower in the decade following a macroeconomic disruption. We extend those results to provide evidence of several post-crisis “double dips” in the years following the crisis. A faltering of economic recovery is not uncommon after a severe financial shock, although this can often be ascribed to exogenous events.

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