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The Determinants of Technology Adoption by UK Farmers using Bayesian Model Averaging. The Cases of Organic Production and Computer Usage.

Balcombe, Kelvin and Tiffin, R (2010): The Determinants of Technology Adoption by UK Farmers using Bayesian Model Averaging. The Cases of Organic Production and Computer Usage.

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Abstract

We introduce and implement a reversible jump approach to Bayesian Model Averaging for the Probit model with uncertain regressors. This approach provides a direct estimate of the probability that a variable should be included in the model. Two applications are investigated. The �rst is the adoption of organic systems in UK farming, and the second is the in�uence of farm and farmer characteristics on the use of a computer on the farm. While there is a correspondence between the conclusions we would obtain with and without model averaging results, we �find important di¤erences, particularly in smaller samples.

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