Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors

Claveria, Oscar and Datzira, Jordi (2008): Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors. Published in: TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism , Vol. 4, No. 1 (15 October 2009): pp. 13-28.

Abstract

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand in Catalonia. To fill the gap, this paper focuses on detecting the macroeconomic factors that determine tourism demand in Catalonia. We also analyse the relation between these factors and tourism demand. Despite the strong seasonal component and the outliers in the time series of some countries, overnight stays give a better indication of tourism demand in Catalonia than the number of tourists. The degree of linear association between the macroeconomic variables and tourism demand is also higher when using quarterly rather than monthly data. Finally, there are notable differences between the results obtained for the different countries analysed. These results indicate that the best way to model tourism demand in Catalonia is to specify a quarterly model of overnight stays, differentiating between an aggregate demand model for the total number of tourists and specific models for each of the countries analysed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: tourism demand in Catalonia, external economic factors, expectations, descriptive analysis
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

References

Anderson, O. (1952). The business test of the IFO-Institute for economic research, Munich, and its theoretical model, Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique, Vol. 20, pp.1-17.

Buisán, A. (1997). Exportaciones de turismo y competitividad, Revista de Economía Aplicada, Vol. 5, pp.65-81. Bull, A. (1994). La economía del sector turístico. Madrid, Alianza Editorial.

Claveria, O., Pons, E. and Suriñach, J. (2006). Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation? Economic Issues, Vol. 11, pp.19-38.

Claveria, O., Pons, E. & Ramos, R. (2007). Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, pp.47-69.

Crouch, G.I. (1994b). The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings. Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 33, pp.12-23.

De Rus, G. and León, C. (1997). Economía del turismo. Un panorama. Revista de Economía Aplicada, Vol. 5, pp.71-109.

Figuerola, M. (1992). Teoría económica del turismo. Madrid, Alianza Editorial.

Figuerola, M. (1996). Experiencias cuantitativas en el análisis económico del turismo. Estudios Turísticos, Vol. 129, pp.37-58.

Garín-Muñoz, T. & Amaral, T.P. (2000). An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 7, pp.525-29.

Gerakis, A.S. (1965). Effects of exchange-rate devaluations and revaluations on receipts from tourism. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 12, pp.365-84.

González P. and Moral, P. (1995). An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp.233-251.

Ledesma-Rodríguez, F.J., Navarro-Ibáñez, M. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J.V. (2001). Panel data and tourism: a case study of Tenerife. Tourism Economics, Vol. 7, pp.75-88.

Lim, C. (1997). Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 24, pp.835-849.

Morley, C.L. (1994). Experimental destination choice analysis. Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 21, pp.315-328. O'Hagan, J.W. & Harrison, M.J. (1984). Market shares of US tourist expenditure in Europe: an econometric analysis. Applied Economics, Vol. 16, pp.919-931.

Padilla, R. (1988). La demanda de servicios turísticos en España. Investigaciones Económicas, Vol. 12, pp.133-157.

Smith, S. (1995). Tourism Analysis. London, Longman.

Uysal M. & Crompton J.L. (1985). An overview of approaches used to forecast tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 23, pp.7-15.

Witt. S.F. & Martin, C.A. (1987). Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 25, pp.23-30.

Witt, S.F. & Witt, C.A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp.447-475.