Clark, Gregory (2010): 1381 and the Malthus Delusion.
Download (1MB) | Preview
What were income trends before the Industrial Revolution? Clark (2007b) argued on both theoretical and empirical grounds that pre-industrial income was fluctuating but trendless, a position Gunner Persson has labeled “the Malthus Delusion.” Steve Broadberry and Bruce Campbell, in support of the Persson position, have recently estimated that English per capita income grew more than three-fold between 1270 and 1800. Here I use the Poll Tax returns to estimate income in 1379-81 from the farming share of employment. England in 1381, with only 55 percent of the population engaged in farming, was at income levels close to those of 1817.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||1381 and the Malthus Delusion|
|Keywords:||Long Run Growth England|
|Subjects:||N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
|Depositing User:||Gregory Clark|
|Date Deposited:||28. Sep 2010 10:14|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 08:51|
Allen, R. C. 2008. Review of Gregory Clark’s A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 946-73.
Bailey, Mark. 2007. Medieval Suffolk: An Economic and Social History, 1200-1500. Woodbridge: Boydell Press.
Broadberry, S., B. Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton, Bas van Leeuwen. 2008. “British Economic Growth, 1300-1850: Some Preliminary Estimates.” University of Warwick.
Broadberry, S., B. Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton, Bas van Leeuwen. 2010. “British Economic Growth, 1270-1870: Some Preliminary Estimates.” University of Warwick.
Clark, Gregory. 2007a. “The Long March of History: Farm Wages, Population and Economic Growth, England 1209-1869.” Economic History Review, 60(1), 97-135.
Clark, Gregory. 2007b. A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Clark, Gregory. 2010a. “The Macroeconomic Aggregates for England, 1209-1869.” Research in Economic History, 27: 51-140.
Clark, Gregory. 2010b. “The Consumer Revolution: Turning Point in Human History, or Statistical Artifact?” Working Paper, UC Davis.
Clark, Gregory, Joseph Cummins and Brock Smith. 2010. “The Surprising Wealth of Pre-Industrial England.” Working Paper, UC Davis.
Clark, Gregory, Michael Huberman and Peter Lindert. 1995. “A British Food Puzzle: 1770-1850” Economic History Review, 68 (May): 215-237.
De Vries, Jan. 2008. The Industrious Revolution: Consumer Behavior and the Household Economy, 1650 to the Present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Dyer, C. C. 1994. Everyday Life in Medieval England. London: Hambledon & London.
Fenwick, Carolyn C. 1998. The Poll Tax Returns of 1377, 1379 and 1381, Vol 1. Oxford: British Academy, Records of Economic and Social History, v. 27.
Fenwick, Carolyn C. 2001. The Poll Tax Returns of 1377, 1379 and 1381, Vol 2. Oxford: British Academy, Records of Economic and Social History, v. 29.
Fenwick, Carolyn C. 2005. The Poll Tax Returns of 1377, 1379 and 1381, Vol 3. Oxford: British Academy, Records of Economic and Social History, v. 37.
Goldberg, P. J. P. 1990. “Urban Identity and the Poll Taxes of 1377, 1379, and 1381” Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 43, No. 2 (May, 1990), pp. 194-216.
Maddison, Angus. 2008. Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.
Mokyr, Joel. 2010. The Enlightened Economy: An Economic History of Britain 1700-1850. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Persson, K. Gunnar. 1988. Pre-Industrial Economic Growth, Social Organization, and Technological Progress in Europe. Oxford: Blackwell.
Persson, K. Gunnar. 2008. “The Malthus Delusion.” European Review of Economic History, 12(2) (August): 165-173.
McHardy, A. K. 1992. Clerical poll-taxes of the Diocese of Lincoln, 1377-1381. Woodbridge, Suffolk: Lincoln Record Society, v. 81.
Powell, Edgar. 1896. The Rising in East Anglia in 1381. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rorke, Martin. 2006. “English and Scottish overseas trade, 1300–1600.” Economic History Review, 59(2): 265-288.
Shaw-Taylor, L. and E.A. Wrigley. 2008. “The Occupational Structure of England c. 1750-1871: A Preliminary Report.” Cambridge, England: Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure.
United Kingdom, Parliamentary Papers. 1844. Population: Occupational Abstract. Vol. 27.
Wrigley, E. A. 1985. “Urban Growth and Agricultural Change: England and the Continent in the Early Modern Period.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 15: 683-728.