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Determinants of timber exports in Nigeria: an error correction modeling approach

Yusuf, Adesina Sulaiman and Edom, Cyprian .O (2007): Determinants of timber exports in Nigeria: an error correction modeling approach.

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Abstract

Abstract This study analyzed the factors influencing the exports of timber in Nigeria with the aid of Error Correction Model (ECM) representation procedures. The analysis was carried out with the data collected on roundwood and sawnwood over 33 years (1970 – 2003) using the long run restricted ECM. The statistical significance of the ECM terms for roundwood (-1.110) and sawnwood (-1.772) validates the existence of relationship among the variables. This suggests the short run dynamic effect of the changes in export quantities of roundwood are determined by one-year lagged export quantity of roundwood & domestic output-consumption ratio of roundwood, domestic output-consumption ratio of roundwood and domestic-international price ratio of roundwood, while that of sawnwood is determined by lagged values of the official exchange rate, domestic consumption-output, domestic consumption-output and world export-output ratios of the sawnwood. Efforts to boost timber export from Nigeria needs to incorporate policy measures that will improve the quantity and quality of timber products in order to meet the local and foreign demands.

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